Abstract. The population of many countries might undergo dramatic changes in the coming decades due to continuous increases in life expectancy. The sustained reduction in mortality rates and its systematic underestimation has been attracting the significant interest of researchers in recent years because of its potential impact on population size and structure, social security systems, and (from an actuarial perspective) the life insurance and pensions industry worldwide. Among all projection methods, the Lee-Carter method has been widely accepted by the actuarial community. This paper explores the use of the Lee-Carter method to forecast the mortality rates for Malaysian population. The index of the level of mortality for each gender, and the shape and sensitivity coefficients for 18 age groups were obtained through the LeeCarter method. The Singular Values Decomposition (SVD) is used to forecast the general index for the time period that goes from 2011 to 2030. Since the model involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory Version 7.0 (MATLAB 7.0) software will be used in the study. The empirical data sets of Malaysia population for the period of 1981-2010 and for both genders will be considered.
An ageing population is a worldwide phenomenon, as the results of improvement in mortality rates and drops in fertility rate over the past century. Previously, this trend was focused among the developed countries of Europe and North America but over the past 20 years, the ageing population has started to grow in the developing countries, especially countries of Southeast Asia such as Malaysia. Given changes in fertility and improving life expectancy, the figure is expected to increase significantly. According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia, it is estimated that 6.5% of the total population is aged 65 and above in 2018 and this figure is expected to increase to 14.5% in 2040. With the current changes in the demographic trend, it is expected that there will be changes in the amount of savings and this could also lead to changes in the economic performances in the future. Thus, the main objective of this study is to examine the impact of the ageing population on economic growth in Malaysia by using annual data from the year 1985 to 2016. Total fertility rates, life expectancy, labour force participation rate and old-dependency ratio are variables that are used in the study. These data were analysed using Multiple Linear Regression Model and the results indicate that Malaysia is expected to experience the ageing population in the future and that it gives effect towards Malaysian's economic growth. Keywords: ageing population; economic growth; life expectancy; labour force participation; old-dependency ratio; fertility rates
At the beginning of March 2020, the Coronavirus pandemic was acknowledged as a great confrontation that shook the travel organisations’ core. Indeed, it provides such a profound disturbance to the industry. It gives a preview of Malaysian travellers’ discernments in a distinctive point of time - the times of the COVID-19 linked to the worldwide lockdown and restriction movement order. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between perceived risks and Malaysian travel behaviour due to the COVID-19 pandemic and identifies the risk factors that influenced Malaysian travel behaviour. This study was focused on a random sampling among Malaysians who had experienced the pleasure of travelling. The questionnaire was designed to measure travel behaviour and several perceived risks, including travel, psychological, safety, security, financial, and health. Ordered Probit regression and test statistic scores disclosed that perceived psychological risk, perceived financial risk, and perceived health risk significantly impacted and positively correlated to Malaysian travelling behaviours due to COVID-19. The perceived risk factors further showed that anxious feelings existed to enjoy travelling during the pandemic. It shows that Malaysians travel behavioural had shifted due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
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