Objective The aim of this study is to find the most suitable heat wave definition among 15 different ones and to evaluate its impact on total, age-, and gender-specific mortality for Bandafassi, Senegal. Methods Daily weather station data were obtained from Kedougou situated at 17 km from Bandafassi from 1973 to 2012. Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) are used to investigate the effect of heat wave on mortality and to evaluate the nonlinear association of heat wave definitions at different lag days, respectively. Results Heat wave definitions, based on three or more consecutive days with both daily minimum and maximum temperatures greater than the 90th percentile, provided the best model fit. A statistically significant increase in the relative risk (RRs 1.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.2–1.6), 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9), 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08–1.3), 1.2 (95% CI: 1.04–1.5), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.8), 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2–1.5), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.07–1.6), and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.8)) of total mortality was observed for eight definitions. By using the definition based on the 90th percentile of minimum and maximum temperature with a 3-day duration, we also found that females and people aged ≥ 55 years old were at higher risks than males and other different age groups to heat wave related mortality. Conclusion The impact of heat waves was associated with total-, age-, gender-mortality. These results are expected to be useful for decision makers who conceive of public health policies in Senegal and elsewhere. Climate parameters, including temperatures and humidity, could be used to forecast heat wave risks as an early warning system in the area where we conduct this research. More broadly, our findings should be highly beneficial to climate services, researchers, clinicians, end-users and decision-makers.
The Semiology of Emmanuel Macron's Gesture ABSTRACT: This work deals with the semiotic analysis of the semiology of gesture in the communications of French President Emmanuel Macron, particularly during the Yellow Vests movement or during the Covid 19 pandemic. The semiology of gesture is an approach that encompasses the functionings of verbal signs during an act of communication. Gesture becomes a language that complements verbal language. This study of gestural language addresses synergology and gestural grammar in discourse. The semiotic analysis of discourse now makes it possible to raise all the non-verbal discursive mechanisms such as the discourse of the hands, the gaze and the representation of the body which are fundamental in the speeches of the French president. It also highlights the link between rhetoric and gesture but the pragmatic dimension of gesture in Macron's speech. RÉSUMÉ : Dans ce travail, il est question d’analyse sémiotique de la sémiologie du geste dans les communications du président français Emmanuel Macron, notamment durant les mouvements des gilets jaunes ou lors de la pandémie Covid 19. La sémiologie du geste est une approche qui englobe les fonctionnements des signes verbaux au cours d’un acte de communication. Le geste devient en effet un langage qui complète le langage verbal. Cette étude du langage gestuel aborde la synergologie et la grammaire gestuelle dans le discours. L’analyse sémiotique du discours permet aujourd’hui de soulever l’ensemble des mécanismes discursifs non verbaux tels que les discours des mains, du regard et de la représentation du corps qui sont fondamentaux dans les discours du président français. Il met par ailleurs en évidence le lien entre rhétorique et geste mais la dimension pragmatique du geste dans le discours de Macron.
In this paper, we have used the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to investigate the relationships between high temperature and daily number of deaths in Niakhar, a Sehalian-Sudanese climate in central Senegal. Daily data on number of deaths and meteorological variables over the period of 1983-2013 were considered. Descriptive statistics show that, over the study period, the total of non-accidental deaths were 12,798, among which we notice that 490 persons (3.83%) died of cardiovascular disease, 1,015 persons (7.93%) died of respiratory disease, 3,970 persons (31.02%) died of certain infectious and parasitic diseases, and 224 persons (1.75%) died of nervous system disease From the GAM model, we observe that high temperature significantly increased the relative risk (RR)Indeed, relative risk of deaths due to cardiovascular disease is 1.034 with a 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.025 to 1.044, while it is 1.030 with a 95% CI 1.026 to 1.033 for certain infectious and parasitic disease. For respiratory disease, the RR is 1.012 with a 95% CI 1.007 to 1.017, and for nervous system disease, the relative risk is 1.034 with 95% CI 1.026 to 1.043.
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