Objective A challenge in hypertension-related risk management is identifying which people are likely to develop future complications. To address this, we present administrative-claims based predictive models for hypertension-related complications. Materials and Methods We used a national database to select 1,767,559 people with hypertension and extracted 112 features from past claims data based on their ability to predict hypertension complications in the next year. Complications affecting kidney, brain, and heart were grouped by clinical severity into three stages. Extreme gradient boosting binary classifiers for each stage were trained and tuned on 75% of the data, and performance on predicting outcomes for the remaining data and an independent dataset was evaluated. Results In the cohort under study, 6%, 17%, and 7% of people experienced a hypertension-related complication of stage 1, stage 2, or stage 3 severity, respectively. On an independent dataset, models for all three stages performed competitively with other published algorithms by the most commonly reported metric, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, which ranged from 0.82-0.89. Features that were important across all models for predictions included total medical cost, cost related to hypertension, age, and number of outpatient visits. Discussion The model for stage 1 complications, such as left ventricular hypertrophy and retinopathy, is in contrast to other offerings in the field, which focus on more serious issues such as heart failure and stroke, and affords unique opportunities to intervene during earlier stages. Conclusion Predictive analytics for hypertension outcomes can be leveraged to help mitigate the immense healthcare burden of uncontrolled hypertension.
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