BackgroundMean duration of recent infection (MDRI) and misclassification of long-term HIV-1 infections, as proportion false recent (PFR), are critical parameters for laboratory-based assays for estimating HIV-1 incidence. Recent review of the data by us and others indicated that MDRI of LAg-Avidity EIA estimated previously required recalibration. We present here results of recalibration efforts using >250 seroconversion panels and multiple statistical methods to ensure accuracy and consensus.MethodsA total of 2737 longitudinal specimens collected from 259 seroconverting individuals infected with diverse HIV-1 subtypes were tested with the LAg-Avidity EIA as previously described. Data were analyzed for determination of MDRI at ODn cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0 using 7 statistical approaches and sub-analyzed by HIV-1 subtypes. In addition, 3740 specimens from individuals with infection >1 year, including 488 from patients with AIDS, were tested for PFR at varying cutoffs.ResultsUsing different statistical methods, MDRI values ranged from 88–94 days at cutoff ODn = 1.0 to 177–183 days at ODn = 2.0. The MDRI values were similar by different methods suggesting coherence of different approaches. Testing for misclassification among long-term infections indicated that overall PFRs were 0.6% to 2.5% at increasing cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0, respectively. Balancing the need for a longer MDRI and smaller PFR (<2.0%) suggests that a cutoff ODn = 1.5, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days should be used for cross-sectional application. The MDRI varied among subtypes from 109 days (subtype A&D) to 152 days (subtype C).ConclusionsBased on the new data and revised analysis, we recommend an ODn cutoff = 1.5 to classify recent and long-term infections, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days (118–142). Determination of revised parameters for estimation of HIV-1 incidence should facilitate application of the LAg-Avidity EIA for worldwide use.

BackgroundThe human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) fuels tuberculosis (TB) epidemics. In controlled clinical trials, antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces TB incidence in HIV-infected patients. In this study we determine if, under programmatic conditions, Brazil's policy of universal ART access has impacted TB incidence among HIV-infected patients.MethodsWe abstracted clinical information from records of HIV-infected patients managed in the public sector in 11 Brazilian states between 1/1/1995 and 12/31/2001. Case ascertainment (TB and HIV) utilized guidelines (with added stringency) published by Brazil's Ministry of Health. We determined TB incidence and hazards ratio (HR) for ART-naïve and ART-treated [including highly active ART (HAART)] patients employing Cox proportional hazards analysis.ResultsInformation from 463 HIV-infected patients met study criteria. The median age of the study population was 34 years, 70% were male, and mean follow-up to primary endpoints—TB, death, and last clinic visit—was 330, 1059, and 1125 days, respectively. Of the 463 patients, 76 (16%) remained ART-naïve. Of the patients who never received HAART (n = 157) 81 were treated with ART non-HAART. Of the patients who received any ART (n = 387), 306 were treated with HAART (includes those patients who later switched from ART non-HAART to HAART). Tuberculosis developed in 39/463 (8%) patients. Compared to HAART- and ART non-HAART-treated patient groups, TB incidence was 10- (p<0.001) and 2.5-fold (p = 0.03) higher in ART-naïve patients, respectively. The median baseline absolute CD4+ T-lymphocyte count for patients who developed TB was not significantly different from that of patients who remained TB free. In multivariate analysis, the incidence of TB was statistically significantly lower in HAART-treated [HR 0.2; 95% (CI 0.1, 0.6); p<0.01] compared to ART naïve patients. A baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte count <200 cells/mm3 [HR 2.5; (95% CI 1.2, 5.4); p<0.01], prior hospitalization [HR 4.2; (95% CI 2.0, 8.8); p<0.001], prior incarceration [HR 4.1; 95% CI 1.6, 10.3); p<0.01], and a positive tuberculin skin test [HR 3.1; (95% CI 1.1, 9.0); p = 0.04] were independently and positively associated with incident TB.ConclusionIn this population-based study we demonstrate an 80% reduction in incident TB, under programmatic conditions, in HAART-treated HIV-infected patients compared to ART-naïve patients.

Objectives: To establish the accuracy of the country specific estimates of HIV prevalence, incidence, and AIDS mortality published every 2 years by UNAIDS and WHO. Methods: We review sources of error in the data used to generate national HIV/AIDS and where possible estimate their statistical properties. We use numerical and approximate analytic methods to estimate the combined impact of these errors on HIV/AIDS estimates. Heuristic rules are then derived to produce plausible bounds about these estimates for countries with different types of epidemic and different qualities of surveillance system. Results: Although 95% confidence intervals (CIs) can be estimated for some sources of error, the sizes of other sources of error must be based on expert judgment. We therefore produce plausible bounds about HIV/AIDS estimates rather than statistical CIs. The magnitude of these bounds depends on the stage of the epidemic and the quality and coverage of the sentinel HIV surveillance system. The bounds for adult estimates are narrower than those for children, and those for prevalence are narrower than those for new infections.Conclusions: This paper presents a first attempt at a rigorous description of the errors associated with estimation of global statistics of an infectious disease. The proposed methods work well in countries with generalised epidemics (.1% adult HIV prevalence) where the quality of surveillance is good. Although methods have also been derived for countries with low level or concentrated epidemics, more data on the biases in the estimation process are required.

OBJECTIVES. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the completeness of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) case reporting. METHODS. Statewide or hospital-specific 1988 medical records were linked with AIDS surveillance in six sites. Medical records were reviewed for persons who had diagnoses suggesting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection or AIDS but were not reported to AIDS surveillance by September 1989. RESULTS. Among 4500 hospitalized persons diagnosed with AIDS through 1988 in the six sites, completeness of reporting was 92% (95% CI = 89%, 96%; range across sites = 89% to 97%). Completeness of reporting was high in males (92%), females (95%), Whites (95%), Blacks (90%), Hispanics (92%), men reporting sexual contact with men (92%), persons reporting injecting-drug use (91%), and persons exposed to HIV through heterosexual contact (99%). In Medicaid enrollees (two states), completeness of reporting was 99% (95% CI = 95%, 99%) in inpatients and 90% (95% CI = 79%, 90%) in outpatients. Of previously reported persons with AIDS, 82% were reported within 5 months of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS. Completeness of AIDS reporting was high, overall and in each major demographic and HIV exposure group. These results demonstrate that current surveillance data in these six sites provide timely and accurate information regarding persons with AIDS.

This study describes HIV, sexually transmitted infections (STI) and risk factors associated with Mycoplasma genitalium among female sex workers (FSWs) in four cities in Honduras. In 2006, 795 FSWs from Tegucigalpa, San Pedro Sula, La Ceiba and Comayagua were recruited using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) and tested for HIV prevalence and STI. HIV prevalence ranged from no infections in Comayagua to 5.4% in Tegucigalpa. With the exception of Comayagua, more than 20% of FSWs were infected with M. genitalium. M. genitalium in the aggregated cities was associated with HIV positivity, being aged ≤30 years old, drinking alcohol more than once weekly and always using condoms with regular clients in the past month. In comparison with a 2001 surveillance study we found lower rates of HIV infection. Interventions for HIV control and prevention among FSWs, including promotion of condom use, are needed in Honduras.