Capital flight undermines economic growth and the effectiveness of debt relief and foreign aid, and sometimes drains more resources from poor countries than does debt service. In an analysis of a large panel of developing and emerging market countries using annual data for 1970-2001, we show that both institutions and macro policies robustly affect capital flight. Our study also supports the existence of a revolving door relationship between debt and capital flight. More notably we find countries with weak institutions have a greater propensity to accumulate debt because weak institutions spur capital flight, which, in turn, creates a financing need.
This paper considers the role of corruption in impelling capital flight. Identifying corruption as one dimension of poor governance, the empirical analysis explores direct linkages between corruption and capital flight in a broad sample of countries. The novelty of this investigation is that it is based on a portfolio choice model of asset allocation that explicitly recognizes corruption as contributing to the variance of domestic investment risk. The main testable proposition emerging from our theoretical specification is stated thus: does corruption impel capital flight by raising the risk of domestic investment, ceteris paribus? An econometric analysis suggests that, holding other determinants of capital flight constant, corruption does have a positive and significant impact on capital flight. Based on these results, the paper concludes that advocating good governance by combating corruption makes a great deal of sense for countries aiming to staunch capital flight.
JEL CLASSIFICATION: G11, F32KEY WORDS: Capital flight, governance, corruption, economic risk Capital flight and corruption are some of the main causes of the poverty in the South. Without capital flight and corruption the debt crisis would not exist in its current form.
This paper estimates Indian capital flight at US $88 billion (in 1997 dollars) over the 1971-97 period, a sum that is roughly 20% of the US $448 billion real external debt disbursed to the country over the same time period. There is also evidence of a strong year-to-year correlation between debt inflows and flight-capital outflows. The paper explores the nature of this association between capital flight and external debt in the Indian economy. An analysis by Boyce (1992, World Development, 20, pp. 335-349) for the Philippines revealed the presence of contemporaneous bi-directional causality, in other words, a financial revolving door relationship between external debt and capital flight in that economy. The research question addressed by this paper is whether such a financial revolving door relationship exists in India, given its higher level of external indebtedness and lower debt-to-GNP ratio as compared with the Philippines. Utilizing a simultaneous equation model to examine the association between capital flight and external debt in the Indian economy, the paper confirms the existence of a financial revolving door relationship between the two endogenous variables.
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