<p style='text-indent:20px;'>In uncertainty quantification, the quantity of interest is usually the statistics of the space and/or time integration of system solution. In order to reduce the computational cost, a Bayes estimator based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) is introduced in this paper. The cumulative distribution function of the output of interest, that is, the expectation of the indicator function, is estimated by MLMC method instead of the classic Monte Carlo simulation. Then, combined with the corresponding probability density function, the quantity of interest is obtained by using some specific quadrature rules. In addition, the smoothing of indicator function and Latin hypercube sampling are used to accelerate the reduction of variance. An elliptic stochastic partial differential equation is used to provide a research context for this model. Numerical experiments are performed to verify the advantage of computational reduction and accuracy improvement of our MLMC-Bayes method.</p>
In Bayesian inverse problems, using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to sample from the posterior space of unknown parameters is a formidable challenge due to the requirement of evaluating the forward model a large number of times. For the purpose of accelerating the inference of the Bayesian inverse problems, in this work, we present a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) based data-driven compressive sensing (DCS) method and construct a low dimensional approximation to the stochastic surrogate model on the prior support. Specifically, we first use POD to generate a reduced order model. Then we construct a compressed polynomial approximation by using a stochastic collocation method based on the generalized polynomial chaos expansion and solving an l 1 -minimization problem. Rigorous error analysis and coefficient estimation was provided. Numerical experiments on stochastic elliptic inverse problem were performed to verify the effectiveness of our POD-DCS method.
In this article, we establish a cluster-based gradient method (CGM) by combining K-means clustering algorithm and stochastic gradient descent (SGD). By clustering the sampling solutions, we use the cluster centroids to represent sampling data and give an estimate to the full gradient. It is well known that the full gradient descent (FGD) can provide the steepest descent direction for finding a local minimum of the desired stochastic control problems. However, the huge computational requirements, which is proportional to the product of sample size and the numerical cost for each sample, often makes FGD cost prohibitive for large scale optimization problems. To reduce the formidable cost and the risks of getting stuck in a local minimum, SGD is proposed and can be regarded as a stochastic approximation of FGD. This, however, would result in a slow convergence due to the incorrect approximation of the iteratively update parameters. Our study shows that CGM could provide a good stochastic approximation to the full gradient with small sample size while has a more stable and faster convergence than SGD. To verify our algorithm, a stochastic elliptic control problem is selected and tested. The numerical results validate our method as a reliable gradient descent method with great potential applications in optimization problems.
We propose a novel stochastic reduced-order model (SROM) for complex systems by combining clustering and classification strategies. Specifically, the distance and centroid of centroidal Voronoi tessellation (CVT) are redefined according to the optimality of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), thereby obtaining a time-dependent generalized CVT, and each class can generate a set of cluster-based POD (CPOD) basis functions. To learn the classification mechanism of random input, the naive Bayes pre-classifier and clustering results are applied. Then for a new input, the set of CPOD basis functions associated with the predicted label is used to reduce the corresponding model. Rigorous error analysis is shown, and a discussion in stochastic Navier-Stokes equation is given to provide a context for the application of this model. Numerical experiments verify that the accuracy of our SROM is improved compared with the standard POD method.
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