Habitat loss and degradation induced by human development are among the major threats to biodiversity worldwide. In this study, we tested our ability to predict the response of bird communities (128 species) to land-use changes in southern Quebec (~483,100 km ) over the last 30 yr (between 1984-1989 and 2010-2014) by using species distribution models (299,302 occurrences in 30,408 locations) from a hindcasting perspective. Results were grouped by functional guilds to infer potential impacts on ecosystem services, and to relate model transferability (i.e., ability of our models to be generalized to other times and scales) to specific functional and life-history traits. Overall, our models were able to accurately predict, both in space and time, habitat suitability for 69% of species, especially for granivorous, nonmigrant, tree-nesting species, and species that are tied to agricultural areas under intensive use. These findings indicate that model transferability depends upon specific functional and life-history traits, providing further evidence that species' ecologies affect the ability of models to accurately predict bird distributions. Declining bird species were mostly short-distance migrants that were associated with open habitats (agricultural and nonproductive forest) with aerial insectivorous or granivorous diets, which may be related to agricultural intensification and land abandonment. Land-use changes were positive for some forest bird species that were mainly associated with mixed and deciduous forests, generalist diets and tree-nesting strategies. Yet cavity-nesting birds have suffered substantial reductions in their distributions, suggesting that cumulative effects of intensive logging and wildfires on mature forests pose a threat for forest-specialist species. Habitat suitability changes predicted by our coarse-scale species distribution models partially agreed with the long-term trends reported by the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Our findings confirm land-use change as a key driving force for shaping bird communities in southern Quebec, together with the need to explicitly incorporate it into global change scenarios that better inform decision-makers on conservation and management.

Abstract:Severe crown fires are determining disturbances for the composition and structure of boreal forests in North America. Fire cycle (FC) associations with continental climate gradients are well known, but smaller scale controls remain poorly documented. Using a time since fire map (time scale of 300 years), the study aims to assess the relative contributions of local and regional controls on FC and to describe the relationship between FC heterogeneity and vegetation patterns. The study area, located in boreal eastern North America, was partitioned into watersheds according to five scales going from local (3 km 2 ) to landscape (2800 km 2 ) scales. Using survival analysis, we observed that dry surficial deposits and hydrography density better predict FC when measured at the local scale, while terrain complexity and slope position perform better when measured at the middle and landscape scales. The most parsimonious model was selected according to the Akaike information criterion to predict FC throughout the study area. We detected two FC zones, one short (159 years) and one long (303 years), with specific age structures and tree compositions. We argue that the local heterogeneity of the fire regime contributes to ecosystem diversity and must be considered in ecosystem management.

Context Although the spatiotemporal dynamics of spruce budworm outbreaks have been intensively studied, forecasting outbreaks remains challenging. During outbreaks, budworm-linked warblers (Tennessee, Cape May, and bay-breasted warbler) show a strong positive response to increases in spruce budworm, but little is known about the relative timing of these responses. Objectives We hypothesized that these warblers could be used as sentinels of future defoliation of budworm host trees. We examined the timing and magnitude of the relationships between defoliation by spruce budworm and changes in the probability of presence of warblers to determine whether they responded to budworm infestation before local defoliation being observed by standard detection methods. Methods We modelled this relationship using large-scale point count surveys of songbirds and maps of cumulative time-lagged defoliation over multiple spatial scales (2–30 km radius around sampling points) in Quebec, Canada. Results All three warbler species responded positively to defoliation at each spatial scale considered, but the timing of their response differed. Maximum probability of presence of Tennessee and Cape May warbler coincided with observations of local defoliation, or provided a one year warning, making them of little use to guide early interventions. In contrast, the probability of presence of bay-breasted warbler consistently increased 3–4 years before defoliation was detectable. Conclusions Early detection is a critical step in the management of spruce budworm outbreaks and rapid increases in the probability of presence of bay-breasted warbler could be used to identify future epicenters and target ground-based local sampling of spruce budworm.

Study DescriptionHabitat loss and degradation are among the major threats to biodiversity. Using bird atlas data, we predicted the response of 128 bird species to land-use changes in southern Québec between "1984-89" and "2010-2014." Declining species were mostly short-distance migrants, associated with open habitats and aerial insectivorous or granivorous diets, which may be related to agricultural intensification and land abandonment. Land-use changes were positive for some forest species, associated with mixed and deciduous forests, generalist diets, and tree-nesting strategies. Yet cavity-nesting birds have suffered reductions in their distributions, suggesting that effects of intensive logging pose a threat for mature forest-specialist species.

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