Summary Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people...

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Summary Background Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. Methods A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000–18 lymphatic filariasis prevalence for 73 current or previously endemic countries. We applied Bayesian model-based geostatistics and time series methods to generate spatially continuous estimates of global all-age 2000–18 prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection mapped at a resolution of 5 km 2 and aggregated to estimate total number of individuals infected. Findings We used 14 927 datapoints to fit the geospatial models. An estimated 199 million total individuals (95% uncertainty interval 174–234 million) worldwide were infected with lymphatic filariasis in 2000, with totals for WHO regions ranging from 3·1 million (1·6–5·7 million) in the region of the Americas to 107 million (91–134 million) in the South-East Asia region. By 2018, an estimated 51 million individuals (43–63 million) were infected. Broad declines in prevalence are observed globally, but focal areas in Africa and southeast Asia remain less likely to have attained infection prevalence thresholds proposed to achieve local elimination. Interpretation Although the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection has declined since 2000, MDA is still necessary across large populations in Africa and Asia. Our mapped estimates can be used to identify areas where the probability of meeting infection thresholds is low, and when coupled with large uncertainty in the predictions, indicate additional data collection or intervention might be warranted before MDA programmes cease. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38•1-65•8), 17•4% (7•7-28•4), and 59•5% (34•2-86•9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Antibiotic resistance (AR) remains a major threat to public and animal health globally. However, AR ramifications in developing countries are worsened by limited molecular diagnostics, expensive therapeutics, inadequate numbers of skilled clinicians and scientists, and unsanitary environments. The epidemiology of Gram-negative bacteria, their AR genes, and geographical distribution in Africa are described here. Data were extracted and analyzed from English-language articles published between 2015 and December 2019. The genomes and AR genes of the various species, obtained from the Pathosystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC) and NCBI were analyzed phylogenetically using Randomized Axelerated Maximum Likelihood (RAxML) and annotated with Figtree. The geographic location of resistant clones/clades was mapped manually. Thirty species from 31 countries and 24 genera from 41 countries were analyzed from 146 articles and 3,028 genomes, respectively. Genes mediating resistance to β-lactams (including blaTEM-1, blaCTX-M, blaNDM, blaIMP, blaVIM, and blaOXA-48/181), fluoroquinolones (oqxAB, qnrA/B/D/S, gyrA/B, and parCE mutations, etc.), aminoglycosides (including armA and rmtC/F), sulfonamides (sul1/2/3), trimethoprim (dfrA), tetracycline [tet(A/B/C/D/G/O/M/39)], colistin (mcr-1), phenicols (catA/B, cmlA), and fosfomycin (fosA) were mostly found in Enterobacter spp. and Klebsiella pneumoniae, and also in Serratia marcescens, Escherichia coli, Salmonella enterica, Pseudomonas, Acinetobacter baumannii, etc., on mostly IncF-type, IncX3/4, ColRNAI, and IncR plasmids, within IntI1 gene cassettes, insertion sequences, and transposons. Clonal and multiclonal outbreaks and dissemination of resistance genes across species and countries and between humans, animals, plants, and the environment were observed; Escherichia coli ST103, K. pneumoniae ST101, S. enterica ST1/2, and Vibrio cholerae ST69/515 were common strains. Most pathogens were of human origin, and zoonotic transmissions were relatively limited. IMPORTANCE Antibiotic resistance (AR) is one of the major public health threats and challenges to effective containment and treatment of infectious bacterial diseases worldwide. Here, we used different methods to map out the geographical hot spots, sources, and evolutionary epidemiology of AR. Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Salmonella enterica, Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Enterobacter spp., Neisseria meningitis/gonorrhoeae, Vibrio cholerae, Campylobacter jejuni, etc., were common pathogens shuttling AR genes in Africa. Transmission of the same clones/strains across countries and between animals, humans, plants, and the environment was observed. We recommend Enterobacter spp. or K. pneumoniae as better sentinel species for AR surveillance.