No abstract

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning.Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty | 6587 BRODIE et al.

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is a simulation-based approach to examine the efficacy of management options in achieving fishery-, ecosystem-, and socioeconomic-related objectives while integrating over system uncertainties. As a form of structured decision analysis, MSE is amenable to stakeholder involvement, which can reduce implementation barriers associated with nontransparent decision-making procedures. Based on analysis of three MSE processes (Atlantic tunas (Thunnus spp.), Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), and eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica)), we provide suggestions for improving stakeholder engagement in MSE. By assembling a workgroup and modeling team with diverse backgrounds, including professional facilitators, communication liaisons, and social scientists, dialogue can be improved and an atmosphere of mutual learning fostered. Communication further benefits from clearly defining roles, responsibilities, and terms of engagement for all involved; explicitly and transparently identifying goals and objectives of the MSE before modeling has begun; and, when appropriate, revisiting goals and objectives throughout the MSE process. Although MSEs are not without limitations, the participatory modeling framework, wherein stakeholders are actively engaged at each stage of MSE development, provides a useful mechanism to support fisheries management.