No abstract

Most pathogens threatening to cause extinction of a host species are maintained on one or more reservoir hosts, in addition to the species that is threatened by disease. Further, most conventional host-pathogen theory assumes that transmission is related to host density, and therefore a pathogen should become extinct before its sole host. Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease is a recently emerged infectious cancer that has led to massive population declines and grave concerns for the future persistence of this largest surviving marsupial carnivore. Here we report the results of mark-recapture studies at six sites and use these data to estimate epidemiological parameters critical to both accurately assessing the risk of extinction from this disease and effectively managing this disease threat. Three sites were monitored from before or close to the time of disease arrival, and at three others disease was well established when trapping began, in one site for at least 10 years. We found no evidence for sex-specific differences in disease prevalence and little evidence of consistent seasonal variation in the force of infection. At all sites, the disease was maintained at high levels of prevalence (>50% in 2-3-year-old animals), despite causing major population declines. We also provide the first estimates of the basic reproductive rate R0 for this disease. Using a simple age-structured deterministic model, we show that our results are not consistent with transmission being proportional to the density of infected hosts but are consistent with frequency-dependent transmission. This conclusion is further supported by the observation that local disease prevalence in 2-3-year-olds still exceeds 50% at a site where population density has been reduced by up to 90% in the past 12 years. These findings lend considerable weight to concerns that this host-specific pathogen will cause the extinction of the Tasmanian devil. Our study highlights the importance of rapidly implementing monitoring programs to determine how transmission depends on host density and emphasizes the need for ongoing management strategies involving a disease-free "insurance population," along with ongoing field monitoring programs to confirm whether local population extinction occurs.

Contagious cancers that pass between individuals as an infectious cell line are highly unusual pathogens. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such contagious cancer that emerged 16 y ago and is driving the Tasmanian devil to extinction. As both a pathogen and an allograft, DFTD cells should be rejected by the host-immune response, yet DFTD causes 100% mortality among infected devils with no apparent rejection of tumor cells. Why DFTD cells are not rejected has been a question of considerable confusion. Here, we show that DFTD cells do not express cell surface MHC molecules in vitro or in vivo, due to down-regulation of genes essential to the antigen-processing pathway, such as β 2 -microglobulin and transporters associated with antigen processing. Loss of gene expression is not due to structural mutations, but to regulatory changes including epigenetic deacetylation of histones. Consequently, MHC class I molecules can be restored to the surface of DFTD cells in vitro by using recombinant devil IFN-γ, which is associated with up-regulation of the MHC class II transactivator, a key transcription factor with deacetylase activity. Further, expression of MHC class I molecules by DFTD cells can occur in vivo during lymphocyte infiltration. These results explain why T cells do not target DFTD cells. We propose that MHC-positive or epigenetically modified DFTD cells may provide a vaccine to DFTD. In addition, we suggest that down-regulation of MHC molecules using regulatory mechanisms allows evolvability of transmissible cancers and could affect the evolutionary trajectory of DFTD.

The structure of the contact network between individuals has a profound effect on the transmission of infectious disease. Using a novel technology--proximity sensing radio collars--we described the contact network in a population of Tasmanian devils. This largest surviving marsupial carnivore is threatened by a novel infectious cancer. All devils were connected in a single giant component, which would permit disease to spread throughout the network from any single infected individual. Unlike the contact networks for many human diseases, the degree distribution was not highly aggregated. Nevertheless, the empirically derived networks differed from random networks. Contact networks differed between the mating and non-mating seasons, with more extended male-female associations in the mating season and a greater frequency of female-female associations outside the mating season. Our results suggest that there is limited potential to control the disease by targeting highly connected age or sex classes.