The impact of climate change on droughts in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopo basins (TDPS system) within the Altiplano region was evaluated by comparing projected 2034–2064 and observed 1984–2014 hydroclimate time series. The study used bias-corrected monthly climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts were analyzed from the standardized precipitation, standardized soil moisture, and standardized runoff indices, respectively, the latter two estimated from a hydrological model. Under scenarios of mean temperature increases up to 3 °C and spatially diverse precipitation changes, our results indicate that meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts will become more intense, frequent, and prolonged in most of the TDPS. A significant increase in the frequency of short-term agricultural and hydrological droughts (duration of 1–2 months) is also projected. The expected decline in annual rainfall and the larger evapotranspiration increase in the southern TDPS combine to yield larger projected rises in the frequency and intensity of agricultural and hydrological droughts in this region.

Wildfire occurrence has increased sharply in the last two decades in the Peruvian Andes. There is, however, little research on wildfires and their impacts. This study explores the conditions conducive to wildfire during 2020. MODIS images were collected to estimate the development of vegetation. In addition, ground-based monthly and satellite-based daily precipitation data were collected. Daily precipitation regularity was evaluated using a concentration index (CI), while monthly precipitation was used to estimate the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). We used also the Global Vegetation Moisture Index (GVMI), which is a useful indicator of vegetation dynamics based on vegetation moisture. Our results do not indicate a direct link between rainfall regularity (lowest  CI values) and development of vegetation. Although the SPI drought analysis using seasonal rainfall indicated nearly normal conditions during 2019–2020, analysis of dry-day frequency (DDF) suggests that the dry period played an important role between September and November 2020, producing conditions similar to the droughts of 2005, 2010 and 2016. GVMI also showed below-average values from April to November. We corroborate the usefulness of DDF for monitoring the potential increase in wildfire conditions. A controlled burn policy could offer a more useful way to reduce the impacts of wildfire.

En este estudio se generó el modelo de regresión múltiple para predecir el rendimiento del cultivo de papa (Solanum tuberosum) en Ecuador, utilizando el registro anual de la producción de las Encuestas de Superficie y Producción Agropecuaria para el periodo 2002-2019. Las variables independientes consideradas, fueron la superficie sembrada con semillas comunes, mejoradas y certificadas, prácticas de cultivo, volumen de venta y superficie sembrada, perdida y cosechada.  Los resultados evidencian que el rendimiento se ve influenciado por cinco variables independientes como son:  semilla mejorada, riego, aplicación de fertilizantes, helada y otros. El modelo de regresión múltiple presenta un buen ajuste con un coeficiente de determinación de 0,86, un RMSE de 1,014 ton/ha y un MAE significativamente bajo (0,024 ton/ha), el cual ayuda a verificar el arreglo del modelo. Por otra parte, la evaluación del incremento del rendimiento (p≤0.01) reveló tasas de crecimiento promedio anual entre 0,87 y 2,07% para las provincias de Tungurahua (0,87%), Pichincha (1,26%), Chimborazo (1,54%), Carchi (1,71%), Cotopaxi (1,91%) y Bolívar (2,07%). La predicción del rendimiento del cultivo de papa en Ecuador se centra principalmente en la influencia de los factores climáticos y tecnologías de cultivo. Es importante que las acciones políticas permitan que los agricultores tengan acceso al crédito y favorezca el uso de tecnologías de manejos del cultivo como el riego, fertilización y controles fitosanitarios.