Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate – particularly precipitation and water availability – is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study.

Large‐scale warming will alter multiple local climate factors in alpine tundra, yet very few experimental studies examine the combined yet distinct influences of earlier snowmelt, higher temperatures and altered soil moisture on alpine ecosystems. This limits our ability to predict responses to climate change by plant species and communities. To address this gap, we used infrared heaters and manual watering in a fully factorial experiment to determine the relative importance of these climate factors on plant flowering phenology, and response differences among plant functional groups. Heating advanced snowmelt and flower initiation, but exposed plants to colder early‐spring conditions in the period prior to first flower, indicating that snowmelt timing, not temperature, advances flowering initiation in the alpine community. Flowering duration was largely conserved; heating did not extend average species flowering into the latter part of the growing season but instead flowering was completed earlier in heated plots. Although passive warming experiments have resulted in warming‐induced soil drying suggested to advance flower senescence, supplemental water did not counteract the average species advance in flowering senescence caused by heating or extend flowering in unheated plots, and variation in soil moisture had inconsistent effects on flowering periods. Functional groups differed in sensitivity to earlier snowmelt, with flower initiation most advanced for early‐season species and flowering duration lengthened only for graminoids and forbs. We conclude that earlier snowmelt, driven by increased radiative heating, is the most important factor altering alpine flowering phenology. Studies that only manipulate summer temperature will err in estimating the sensitivity of alpine flowering phenology to large‐scale warming. The wholesale advance in flowering phenology with earlier snowmelt suggests that alpine communities will track warming, but only alpine forbs and graminoids appear able to take advantage of an extended snow‐free season.

Our results indicate that A. alpina is dependent on insects for both seed production and the maintenance of genetic diversity. This finding suggests that pollinators may be crucial to the long-term adaptive potential of rare, endemic plants and that conservation of rare endemics is, in part, dependent on community-level interactions such as plant-pollinator mutualisms.

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Background: Climate change is projected to alter the elevation and latitude of treeline globally. Seed germination and seedling survival are critical controls on treeline expansion. Neighbouring alpine plants, either through competition for resources or through altered microclimate, also affect seedlings emerging in the alpine zone. With warming, alpine plant species may interact with each other more or less strongly. Aims: To determine whether establishing tree seedlings and an alpine herb are similarly sensitive to alpine plant neighbours under ambient and altered climate. Methods: We imposed active heating, watering, and removed all plants adjacent to emerging conifer seedlings and an alpine herb. Results: Picea engelmannii seedlings showed lower survival compared with Pinus flexilis 3 weeks following neighbour removal, and after 1 year only survived in watered plots. Pinus seedlings responded to neighbour removal by lowering the quantum yield of photosynthesis (ϕ PSII ). Contrary to expectations from the stress gradient hypothesis, survival was reduced without neighbours near the low-elevation range limit of Chionophila jamesii. Conclusions: Pinus flexilis has higher expansion potential into the alpine, while Picea engelmannii requires moist conditions that could be facilitated by neighbours to expand its range. This implies likely range expansion by P. flexilis with consequences for alpine plant diversity and ecosystem function.