No abstract

Transcending human-defined political and administrative boundaries, the world's transboundary freshwater resources pose particularly challenging management problems. Water resource users at all scales frequently find themselves in direct competition for this economic and life-sustaining resource, in turn creating tensions, and indeed conflict, over water supply, allocation, and quality. At the international scale, where the potential for conflict is of particular concern, significant efforts are underway to promote greater cooperation in the world's international river basins, with notable achievements in the past decade following the Dublin and Rio conferences. 1 Over the past ten years, the international community has adopted conventions, declarations, and legal statements concerning the management of international waters, while basin communities have established numerous new basin institutions. Despite these developments, significant vulnerabilities remain. Many international basins still lack any type of joint management structure, and certain fundamental management components are noticeably absent from those that do. An understanding of these weaknesses, however, offers an opportunity for both the international and basin communities to better respond to the specific institution-building needs of basin communities and thereby foster broader cooperation over the world's international water resources.

[1] The Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database provides a framework for quantitative, global-scale explorations of the relationship between freshwater resources and international cooperation and conflict. Projects were designed to test common theories linking freshwater resources to cooperation and conflict, in particular within the context of geography and environmental security. The projects, which follow in sequence, consider three main hypotheses on the likelihood and intensity of water resource disputes. To test these hypotheses, a unique set of tools was created that links water-specific event data with a geographic information system (GIS) that meshes biophysical, political, and socioeconomic data sets at the river basin and other scales. There are three linked data sets: (1) an event data set documenting historical water relations, including a methodology for identifying and classifying events by their intensity of cooperation/conflict; (2) a GIS data set of countries and international basins, both current and historical; and (3) a spatial data set of biophysical, socioeconomic, and political variables, linked to the GIS. This paper describes the hypotheses, the above tools created to test them, and a methodological framework for utilizing the linked event and GIS data sets, providing three projects as examples: (1) indicators of international basins at risk of political tensions, (2) relationships between internal and international hydropolitics in three geographic regions, and (3) hydroclimatological variables and international water relations.

The AgWater Solutions Project was funded by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The findings and conclusions contained within are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect positions or policies of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The compilers of this report would like to thank the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, especially Kathy Lombardo, Christian Witt and Julie Wroblewski, for supporting the AgWater Solutions Project. They would also like to thank the many organizations and individuals, not already mentioned, whose research and comments were an invaluable contribution to this report.

Studies on transboundary water conflict and cooperation generally consider interstate relations over shared water resources as distinct from intrastate relations. While connections have been made between international water relations and regional relationships in general, it is conceivable that international water conflict and cooperation may also be influenced by domestic water events and vice versa. This paper seeks to investigate the dynamics of water interactions across geographic scale and their relationship to broader international affairs. The research approach involves the creation of an analytical framework for assessing possible linkages between external and internal interactions over freshwater resources. The framework is applied to three case studies -the Middle East, South Asia and Southern Africa -utilizing 'event data'. To validate the findings from the quantitative analyses, the results are compared with conventional qualitative understandings of water and overall relations in the three regions. The comparison demonstrates not only the efficacy of the analytical framework in general, but also highlights, at least in terms of the specific case studies selected, the disparate water dynamics across geographic regions and the importance of considering water events, both national and international, within larger political and historical contexts.