The analysis of Wild Cards, potential lowlikelihood but high-impact events, in foresight studies is important in order to counter the tendency of decision makers to deny major surprises. This paper presents the results of an empirical analysis of 14 technological, geopolitical and societal Wild Cards in the transport field, carried out within the EU FP7 project RACE2050. The Wild Cards were elicited through interviews and in brainstorming sessions, and then assessed in an online expert survey. For each Wild Card, experts assessed likelihood in different time-frames, the impact on and vulnerability of different industry segments, the breadth of the effect, and the importance for decision makers to prepare. Some weak signals that may hint at a growing likelihood of certain Wild Cards were also suggested. Results show that the likelihood rises with time. Several Wild Cards reach high likelihood in 2040 or beyond, while the time by which full impact is reached varies. Based on these findings challenges and threats for transport have been identified, pointing to the fact that further research should focus on complex scenario building based on interlinks between ongoing trends and Wild Cards.

The world of transportation is changing. Due to increasing mobility demand, challenges like financing, dealing with emissions and volatile oil prices are accentuated. Decision-makers in the areas of policy and planning have to address these challenges and have try to develop a transportation system capable of meeting the future needs of society and the economy. Thus there is a need for conceptions of the future system as guidelines for decisions. Besides developing new mobility solutions, adapting to a changed world of energy dependencies and addressing social developments will be the main tasks for decision-makers. This paper shows the results of future-oriented research based on the qualitative analysis of megatrends, which were used to describe the main trends setting the direction for future development in transportation and their likely effects. Based on the question of whether there is a transformation-a process of actively supporting change in the transportation system according to trends and changes in frame conditions-going on, analysis of current policies provide a different conclusion. The change in transportation appears as a process of substitution within the boundaries of the fossil-fueled world rather than as transformation in the sense of a fundamental change. Finding alternative development paths would require a perception of transformation as a process of actively shaping and redirecting the system by anticipating and addressing future challenges. Starting points and impulses in this context are rare and to be found in strategies of China, in other parts of Asia and in Europe. The approach of using recent, established and prospective, uncertain megatrends with their potential impact as a basis to provide a future perspective on change processes turned out to be an appropriate way to identify starting points for further research, which should integrate quantitative analysis. Furthermore, additional future-oriented research on megatrends would be needed to accommodate the complexity of the systemic perspective.

New technologies and services can support sustainable mobility if they are successfully integrated into the given mobility system. Decision-makers play a decisive role as ‘enablers’ for such commodities. To find out how a transformation towards sustainable commuting can be forced by implementing innovative solutions like carsharing, Mobility as a Service, or autonomous vehicles, relevant stakeholders were identified for three European case studies. Their perspectives and openness towards trends and new solutions were researched in an online survey. In addition, five expert interviews and two workshops in Switzerland deepened the understanding of how new mobility services could be incorporated into companies through mobility management. Results reflect a strong distinction of stakeholders by their national borders and responsibilities. As new mobility technologies and solutions require collaboration, the acts of supporting strong cross-border and cross-disciplinary cooperation, as well as developing joint interests and work processes beyond traditional ones, are suggested as important starting points. The study reveals a high openness of important stakeholders towards new mobility services and discusses the experience of experts in company mobility management.

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