Inclusive development is a newly emerging notion that is gaining substantial attention, especially in international civil societies. The aim of this study, therefore, is to discuss the drivers of inclusive development in Africa, paying special attention to the political economy and structural change variables. Ordinary Least Squares regression is run in STATA 14 to test if there are statistically significant correlations between the five-year average scores of inclusive development index (IDI) as an endogenous variable and (proxies of) the five-year trend in economic growth, technology, structural change, trade, and political economy as exogenous variables. The panel data are pooled from 21 African countries among which 9 countries are landlocked. The regression is run in two scenarios. As an alternative scenario, IDI is pooled from the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2017 report and used as a dependent variable. In the other scenario, IDI is computed by incorporating variables relevant to the African context then used as a dependent variable. In the IRID customized version, the five-year trends of GDP, health facility, the institutional and structural change variables viz. democracy and employment opportunity in the industry sector are statistically significant determinants of inclusive development. Accordingly, an inference is drawn claiming that inter alia a nation is as prosperous, inclusive and resilient as the quality of its governance institutions and enforcement capability. This is in line with the conventional thought in African studies which claim that a natural resource endowment per se is not the sole determinant of development. Finally, to anchor IDI with a pragmatic paradigm, a three-stage institutional reengineering model is proposed which could be applied in different development governance endeavors.
The current paper is keen to elucidating the nexus of social structure, economic exclusion, and wealth inequality as the instigating causes of political instability in the milieu of Africa. The paper uses eclectic notions including economic, sociological, and governance ideas. The panel dataset for the years 1990-2018 is amassed for 34 African countries, principally from the World Development Indicators, African Development Bank, and Fund for Peace databases. The country specific fixed effects regression has been run using STATA software. The statistical finding suggests that hierarchical social structures cause economic exclusion and trigger conflict. Conversely, adapting an inclusive development approach is the bearable remedy for the national social, economic, and political fragility of the countries. The foremost merit of the paper is that it encompasses the notion of structural and economic exclusion in the theories of peace and development.
Compared to other developing regions, Africa has experienced a relatively late start to the demographic transition, although certain countries in the continent’s north and south did. As a result, Africa is only now starting to broadly benefit from the demographic dividend. Thus, a study on the drivers of the dividend, the timing and length of the dividend, and the dividend optimization strategies is crucial. The paper uses a cross-country panel data for 34 African countries for the years between 1990 and 2018. To identify the drivers of the demographic dividend, fixed effects econometric analysis is used. The foremost contribution of the paper is that it empirically shows the ongoing demographic transition and the simulated time span of the potential first and second demographic dividends. It also identifies pertinent drivers of the demographic dividend. Besides, as a new conceptual framework, it introduces an innovative analytical framework for augmenting the demographic dividend from formal migration. The framework is named after the “International Surplus Labour Circulation (ISLC) model.”
Africa is now at a historical moment of swift demographic transition, which has the potential to harness the demographic dividend and foster inclusive development. However, just like the abundant natural resources, the growing population can be either a blessing or a curse. For instance, the economic growth and swift demographic transition in the last two decades have been tripled by a drastic political movement led by the protruded youth cohort. This paper, therefore, explores an empirical elucidation for the paradox and its remedy. It presents the drivers and time span of the potential demographic dividend for selected African countries. The panel data regression encompasses 34 African countries. However, the time span of the first demographic dividend is revealed for 47 African countries. The ordinary least square regression for the clustered dataset shows that harnessing the demographic dividend requires investment in family planning, gender parity, digitalization, industrialization, and job creation. The unique contribution of the paper is that it extends the demographic dividend discourse into the emerging inclusive development approach and presents pertinent empirics.
The available literature shows that there is a questionable direction of correlation between income inequality, redistribution policies, and economic prosperity. Meanwhile, there is also a striking claim that rising economic inequality is an immense concern. This paper, therefore, aims to summarize the antagonistic thoughts. Moreover, it presents a conceptual model and empirically measures the nexus of income inequality and social protection policy with inclusive development. The fixed effects regression of the panel dataset from 34 African countries reveals that income inequality is a negative driver but social redistribution policies are positive drivers of inclusive development in the long run. The control variables such as inflation, population growth rate, and carbon dioxide emissions stand against inclusion. However, the labour force participation rate, freedom score, life expectancy at birth, enrolment rate in secondary school and share of employment in industry show a positive correlation with inclusion.
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