This is a repository copy of Agent-based modeling and simulation to assess flood preparedness and recovery of manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprises.

The resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to disruptive events is significant as this highly prevalent category of business forms the economic backbone in developed countries. This article provides an overview of the application of a computational modelling and simulation approach to evaluate SMEs' operational resilience to flooding based on combinations of structural and procedural mitigation measures that may be implemented to improve their premises' resistance to flooding and safeguard their business continuity. The approach integrates flood modelling and simulation with agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) within a modelled geographical environment. SMEs are modelled as agents based on findings of semi-structured interviews with SMEs that have experienced flooding or are at risk of flooding. In this paper, the ABMS has been applied to a new case study of the major flood event of 2007 in Tewkesbury. Furthermore, to enable an evaluation of the operational resilience of manufacturing SMEs in terms of the relative effectiveness of flood mitigation measures, a new coefficient based on production loss is introduced. Results indicate structural mitigation measures are more effective than procedural measures. While this result is intuitive, the approach provides a means of evaluating the relative effectiveness of combinations of mitigation measures that SMEs may implement to enhance their operational resilience to flooding. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Urban flood resilience’.

Flooding can result in significant financial losses to a nation's economy in part due to the damage and disruption caused to businesses. In the United Kingdom (UK), Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are crucial to the economy as they account for 99.9% of all businesses. In recognizing the economic importance of SMEs, and their limited resources and tendency to lack disaster mitigation plans, there is a need to investigate ways in which these businesses can improve in terms of flood preparation. An agent-based modelling approach is being developed to facilitate investigations into the effect of a range of precautions that SMEs can take in preparation for flooding. With a focus on manufacturing SMEs, agents representing these businesses have been modelled as having behaviours that can be enacted pre-and post-flood. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) has been used, coupled with a case study of the 2007 flood of the Lower Don Valley in Sheffield, to investigate the influence of different types of insurance coverage and financial status on the response and recovery of manufacturing SMEs exposed to different levels of flooding. As expected, results indicate that SMEs with comprehensive insurance and funds available, along with allocating employees to clean-up its premises, leads to a reduced recovery stage. However, in addition, results provide an indication of the degree of influence of combinations of these attributes on SME recovery.

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