We present the Danish Disease Trajectory Browser (DTB), a tool for exploring almost 25 years of data from the Danish National Patient Register. In the dataset comprising 7.2 million patients and 122 million admissions, users can identify diagnosis pairs with statistically significant directionality and combine them to linear disease trajectories. Users can search for one or more disease codes (ICD-10 classification) and explore disease progression patterns via an array of functionalities. For example, a set of linear trajectories can be merged into a disease trajectory network displaying the entire multimorbidity spectrum of a disease in a single connected graph. Using data from the Danish Register for Causes of Death mortality is also included. The tool is disease-agnostic across both rare and common diseases and is showcased by exploring multimorbidity in Down syndrome (ICD-10 code Q90) and hypertension (ICD-10 code I10). Finally, we show how search results can be customized and exported from the browser in a format of choice (i.e. JSON, PNG, JPEG and CSV).

Background Intensive-care units (ICUs) treat the most critically ill patients, which is complicated by the heterogeneity of the diseases that they encounter. Severity scores based mainly on acute physiology measures collected at ICU admission are used to predict mortality, but are non-specific, and predictions for individual patients can be inaccurate. We investigated whether inclusion of long-term disease history before ICU admission improves mortality predictions.Methods Registry data for long-term disease histories for more than 230 000 Danish ICU patients were used in a neural network to develop an ICU mortality prediction model. Long-term disease histories and acute physiology measures were aggregated to predict mortality risk for patients for whom both registry and ICU electronic patient record data were available. We compared mortality predictions with admission scores on the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, the Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, and the best available multimorbidity score, the Multimorbidity Index. An external validation set from an additional hospital was acquired after model construction to confirm the validity of our model. During initial model development data were split into a training set (85%) and an independent test set (15%), and a five-fold cross-validation was done during training to avoid overfitting. Neural networks were trained for datasets with disease history of 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2⋅5 years, 5 years, 7⋅5 years, 10 years, and 23 years before ICU admission.Findings Mortality predictions with a model based solely on disease history outperformed the Multimorbidity Index (Matthews correlation coefficient 0⋅265 vs 0⋅065), and performed similarly to SAPS II and APACHE II (Matthews correlation coefficient with disease history, age, and sex 0•326 vs 0•347 and 0•300 for SAPS II and APACHE II, respectively). Diagnoses up to 10 years before ICU admission affected current mortality prediction. Aggregation of previous disease history and acute physiology measures in a neural network yielded the most precise predictions of in-hospital mortality (Matthews correlation coefficient 0⋅391 for in-hospital mortality compared with 0⋅347 with SAPS II and 0⋅300 with APACHE II). These results for the aggregated model were validated in an external independent dataset of 1528 patients (Matthews correlation coefficient for prediction of in-hospital mortality 0⋅341).Interpretation Longitudinal disease-spectrum-wide data available before ICU admission are useful for mortality prediction. Disease history can be used to differentiate mortality risk between patients with similar vital signs with more precision than SAPS II and APACHE II scores. Machine learning models can be deconvoluted to generate novel understandings of how ICU patient features from long-term and short-term events interact with each other. Explainable machine learning models are key in clinical settings, and our results emphasise how to progress towards the transformatio...

Introduction Similar symptoms, comorbidities and suboptimal diagnostic tests make the distinction between different types of dementia difficult, although this is essential for improved work‐up and treatment optimization. Methods We calculated temporal disease trajectories of earlier multi‐morbidities in Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia and vascular dementia (VaD) patients using the Danish National Patient Registry covering all hospital encounters in Denmark (1994 to 2016). Subsequently, we reduced the comorbidity space dimensionality using a non‐linear technique, uniform manifold approximation and projection. Results We found 49,112 and 24,101 patients that were diagnosed with AD or VaD, respectively. Temporal disease trajectories showed very similar disease patterns before the dementia diagnosis. Stratifying patients by age and reducing the comorbidity space to two dimensions, showed better discrimination between AD and VaD patients in early‐onset dementia. Discussion Similar age‐associated comorbidities, the phenomenon of mixed dementia, and misdiagnosis create great challenges in discriminating between classical subtypes of dementia.