The sensitivity of vector borne diseases like malaria to climate continues to raise considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease dynamics. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission dynamics of malaria. The reproduction number obtained is applied to gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for baseline climate and future climate with aid of GIS. As a result of climate change, malaria burden is likely to increase in the tropics, the highland regions, and East Africa and along the northern limit of falciparum malaria. Falciparum malaria will spread into the African highlands; however it is likely to die out at the southern limit of the disease.

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Fire is both inevitable and necessary for maintaining the structure and functioning of mesic savannas. Without disturbances such as fire and herbivory, tree cover can increase at the expense of grass cover and over time dominate mesic savannas. Consequently, repeated burning is widely used to suppress tree recruitment and control bush encroachment. However, the effect of regular burning on invasion by alien plant species is little understood. Here, vegetation data from a long-term fire experiment, which began in 1953 in a mesic Zimbabwean savanna, were used to test whether the frequency of burning promoted alien plant invasion. The fire treatments consisted of late season fires, lit at 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-year intervals, and these regularly burnt plots were compared with unburnt plots. Results show that over half a century of frequent burning promoted the invasion by alien plants relative to areas where fire was excluded. More alien plant species became established in plots that had a higher frequency of burning. The proportion of alien species in the species assemblage was highest in the annually burnt plots followed by plots burnt biennially. Alien plant invasion was lowest in plots protected from fire but did not differ significantly between plots burnt triennially and quadrennially. Further, the abundance of five alien forbs increased significantly as the interval (in years) between fires became shorter. On average, the density of these alien forbs in annually burnt plots was at least ten times as high as the density of unburnt plots. Plant diversity was also altered by long-term burning. Total plant species richness was significantly lower in the unburnt plots compared to regularly burnt plots. These findings suggest that frequent burning of mesic savannas enhances invasion by alien plants, with short intervals between fires favouring alien forbs. Therefore, reducing the frequency of burning may be a key to minimising the risk of alien plant spread into mesic savannas, which is important because invasive plants pose a threat to native biodiversity and may alter savanna functioning.

In this study, we test for the key bioclimatic variables that significantly explain the current distribution of plant species richness in a southern African ecosystem as a preamble to predicting plant species richness under a changed climate. We used 54,000 records of georeferenced plant species data to calculate species richness and spatially interpolated climate data to derive nineteen bioclimatic variables. Next, we determined the key bioclimatic variables explaining variation in species richness across Zimbabwe using regression analysis. Our results show that two bioclimatic variables, that is, precipitation of the warmest quarter (R2 = 0.92, P < 0.001) and temperature of the warmest month (R2 = 0.67, P < 0.001) significantly explain variation in plant species richness. In addition, results of bioclimatic modelling using future climate change projections show a reduction in the current bio‐climatically suitable area that supports high plant species richness. However, in high‐altitude areas, plant richness is less sensitive to climate change while low‐altitude areas show high sensitivity. Our results have important implications to biodiversity conservation in areas sensitive to climate change; for example, high‐altitude areas are likely to continue being biodiversity hotspots, as such future conservation efforts should be concentrated in these areas.