Influenza genes evolve mostly via point mutations, and so knowing the effect of every amino-acid mutation provides information about evolutionary paths available to the virus. We and others have combined high-throughput mutagenesis with deep sequencing to estimate the effects of large numbers of mutations to influenza genes. However, these measurements have suffered from substantial experimental noise due to a variety of technical problems, the most prominent of which is bottlenecking during the generation of mutant viruses from plasmids. Here we describe advances that ameliorate these problems, enabling us to measure with greatly improved accuracy and reproducibility the effects of all amino-acid mutations to an H1 influenza hemagglutinin on viral replication in cell culture. The largest improvements come from using a helper virus to reduce bottlenecks when generating viruses from plasmids. Our measurements confirm at much higher resolution the results of previous studies suggesting that antigenic sites on the globular head of hemagglutinin are highly tolerant of mutations. We also show that other regions of hemagglutinin—including the stalk epitopes targeted by broadly neutralizing antibodies—have a much lower inherent capacity to tolerate point mutations. The ability to accurately measure the effects of all influenza mutations should enhance efforts to understand and predict viral evolution.

SignificanceA key goal in the study of influenza virus evolution is to forecast which viral strains will persist and which ones will die out. Here we experimentally measure the effects of all amino acid mutations to the hemagglutinin protein from a human H3N2 influenza strain on viral growth in cell culture. We show that these measurements have utility for distinguishing among viral strains that do and do not succeed in nature. Overall, our work suggests that new high-throughput experimental approaches may be useful for understanding virus evolution in nature.

Influenza virus can escape most antibodies with single mutations. However, rare antibodies broadly neutralize many viral strains. It is unclear how easily influenza virus might escape such antibodies if there was strong pressure to do so. Here, we map all single amino-acid mutations that increase resistance to broad antibodies to H1 hemagglutinin. Our approach not only identifies antigenic mutations but also quantifies their effect sizes. All antibodies select mutations, but the effect sizes vary widely. The virus can escape a broad antibody to hemagglutinin’s receptor-binding site the same way it escapes narrow strain-specific antibodies: via single mutations with huge effects. In contrast, broad antibodies to hemagglutinin’s stalk only select mutations with small effects. Therefore, among the antibodies we examine, breadth is an imperfect indicator of the potential for viral escape via single mutations. Antibodies targeting the H1 hemagglutinin stalk are quantifiably harder to escape than the other antibodies tested here.