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The fitting of dose-response models to teratology data involving littermates in order to generate estimates of teratogenic risk is receiving increasing attention as a potential alternative to the "safety-factor" approach to risk estimation. In this paper, we utilize the beta-binomial distribution to introduce varying degrees of intralitter correlation, and, for purposes of illustration, consider a logistic dose-response model that describes the logit of risk as a straight-line function of ln(dose). The biases and (exact and asymptotic) variances of the maximum likelihood estimators of the intercept and slope are studied by simulation as a function of the intralitter correlation structure.

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This paper explores the inter-relationship between toxicity, genotoxicity, and carcinogenicity in laboratory rodents. To our knowledge this is the first attempt to integrate these factors and evaluate their implications for the process of risk assessment. The evaluation is based on information obtained from 2-year laboratory-animal studies involving 99 chemicals. The data suggest that only seven of the 53 positive carcinogenicity studies exhibited the types of target organ toxicity that could have been the cause of all observed carcinogenic effects. Furthermore, no apparent difference in mutagenicity as measured by the Ames Salmonella assay was observed between 'high dose only' carcinogens and the entire set of carcinogens. These findings suggest that the number of chemical carcinogens that we can identify solely through rodent studies as being potential tumor inducers through some indirect mechanism is small. Generally speaking, the identification of histopathological effects is not sufficient in itself for justifying mechanistic assumptions, and supplemental biological information will be necessary to reach definitive conclusions.

In teratology experiments the litter (pregnant female) rather than the fetus is advocated as being the proper experimental unit upon which to base the statistical analysis. It is pointed out that per litter tests, by being based on the average fetal response within a litter, do take the individual fetus into account. Actual experimental data are used to show that when litter effects are present a per fetus analysis is invalid and may seriously exaggerate the significance level. It is also shown that there appears to be little loss in sensitivity in performing per litter tests even in the unlikely event that there are no litter effects. Thus it certainly seems prudent to analyze teratology data with test procedures that treat the litter as the experimental unit.