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Abstract. In the search for metrics that can predict the presence of vulnerabilities early in the software life cycle, there may be some benefit to choosing metrics from the non-security realm. We analyzed non-security and security failure data reported for the year 2007 of a Cisco software system. We used non-security failure reports as input variables into a classification and regression tree (CART) model to determine the probability that a component will have at least one vulnerability. Using CART, we ranked all of the system components in descending order of their probabilities and found that 57% of the vulnerable components were in the top nine percent of the total component ranking, but with a 48% false positive rate. The results indicate that nonsecurity failures can be used as one of the input variables for security-related prediction models.

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