Multiple stimulation protocols have been found to be effective in changing synaptic efficacy by inducing long-term potentiation or depression. In many of those protocols, increases in postsynaptic calcium concentration have been shown to play a crucial role. However, it is still unclear whether and how the dynamics of the postsynaptic calcium alone determine the outcome of synaptic plasticity. Here, we propose a calcium-based model of a synapse in which potentiation and depression are activated above calcium thresholds. We show that this model gives rise to a large diversity of spike timing-dependent plasticity curves, most of which have been observed experimentally in different systems. It accounts quantitatively for plasticity outcomes evoked by protocols involving patterns with variable spike timing and firing rate in hippocampus and neocortex. Furthermore, it allows us to predict that differences in plasticity outcomes in different studies are due to differences in parameters defining the calcium dynamics. The model provides a mechanistic understanding of how various stimulation protocols provoke specific synaptic changes through the dynamics of calcium concentration and thresholds implementing in simplified fashion protein signaling cascades, leading to long-term potentiation and long-term depression. The combination of biophysical realism and analytical tractability makes it the ideal candidate to study plasticity at the synapse, neuron, and network levels.

The calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) plays a key role in the induction of long-term postsynaptic modifications following calcium entry. Experiments suggest that these long-term synaptic changes are all-or-none switch-like events between discrete states. The biochemical network involving CaMKII and its regulating protein signaling cascade has been hypothesized to durably maintain the evoked synaptic state in the form of a bistable switch. However, it is still unclear whether experimental LTP/LTD protocols lead to corresponding transitions between the two states in realistic models of such a network. We present a detailed biochemical model of the CaMKII autophosphorylation and the protein signaling cascade governing the CaMKII dephosphorylation. As previously shown, two stable states of the CaMKII phosphorylation level exist at resting intracellular calcium concentration, and high calcium transients can switch the system from the weakly phosphorylated (DOWN) to the highly phosphorylated (UP) state of the CaMKII (similar to a LTP event). We show here that increased CaMKII dephosphorylation activity at intermediate Ca2+ concentrations can lead to switching from the UP to the DOWN state (similar to a LTD event). This can be achieved if protein phosphatase activity promoting CaMKII dephosphorylation activates at lower Ca2+ levels than kinase activity. Finally, it is shown that the CaMKII system can qualitatively reproduce results of plasticity outcomes in response to spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) and presynaptic stimulation protocols. This shows that the CaMKII protein network can account for both induction, through LTP/LTD-like transitions, and storage, due to its bistability, of synaptic changes.