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The majority of ectotherms grow slower but mature at a larger body size in colder environments. This phenomenon has puzzled biologists because classic theories of life-history evolution predict smaller sizes at maturity in environments that retard growth. During the last decade, intensive theoretical and empirical research has generated some plausible explanations based on nonadaptive or adaptive plasticity. Nonadaptive plasticity of body size is hypothesized to result from thermal constraints on cellular growth that cause smaller cells at higher temperatures, but the generality of this theory is poorly supported. Adaptive plasticity is hypothesized to result from greater benefits or lesser costs of delayed maturation in colder environments. These theories seem to apply well to some species but not others. Thus, no single theory has been able to explain the generality of temperature-size relationships in ectotherms. We recommend a multivariate theory that focuses on the coevolution of thermal reaction norms for growth rate and size at maturity. Such a theory should incorporate functional constraints on thermal reaction norms, as well as the natural covariation between temperature and other environmental variables.

Two major approaches address the need to predict species distributions in response to environmental changes. Correlative models estimate parameters phenomenologically by relating current distributions to environmental conditions. By contrast, mechanistic models incorporate explicit relationships between environmental conditions and organismal performance, estimated independently of current distributions. Mechanistic approaches include models that translate environmental conditions into biologically relevant metrics (e.g. potential duration of activity), models that capture environmental sensitivities of survivorship and fecundity, and models that use energetics to link environmental conditions and demography. We compared how two correlative and three mechanistic models predicted the ranges of two species: a skipper butterfly (Atalopedes campestris) and a fence lizard (Sceloporus undulatus). Correlative and mechanistic models performed similarly in predicting current distributions, but mechanistic models predicted larger range shifts in response to climate change. Although mechanistic models theoretically should provide more accurate distribution predictions, there is much potential for improving their flexibility and performance.

In many organisms, individuals in colder environments grow more slowly but are larger as adults. This widespread pattern is embodied by two well-established rules: Bergmann's rule, which describes the association between temperature and body size in natural environments, and the temperature-size rule, which describes reaction norms relating temperature to body size in laboratory experiments. Theory predicts that organisms should grow to be larger in colder environments when growth efficiency decreases with increasing environmental temperature. Using data from 97 laboratory experiments, including 58 species of ectotherms, we found little evidence that growth efficiency is negatively related to environmental temperature within the thermal range that is relevant to the temperature-size rule. Instead, growth efficiency was either positively related or insensitive to environmental temperature in the majority of cases (73 of 89 cases for gross growth efficiency and 18 of 24 cases for net growth efficiency). Two possibilities merit consideration. First, high temperatures may impose constraints on growth that only arise late during ontogeny; this simple and potentially general explanation is supported by the fact that thermal optima for growth efficiency and growth rate decrease as individuals grow. Alternatively, the general explanation for relationships between temperature and body size may not be simple. If the latter view is correct, the best approach might be to generate and test theories that are tailored specifically to organisms with similar behavior and physiology.