Objective To determine whether the incidence of pneumonia, peritonsillar abscess, mastoiditis, empyema, meningitis, intracranial abscess, and Lemierre’s syndrome is higher in general practices that prescribe fewer antibiotics for self limiting respiratory tract infections (RTIs).Design Cohort study.Setting 610 UK general practices from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.Participants Registered patients with 45.5 million person years of follow-up from 2005 to 2014.Exposures Standardised proportion of RTI consultations with antibiotics prescribed for each general practice, and rate of antibiotic prescriptions for RTIs per 1000 registered patients.Main outcome measures Incidence of pneumonia, peritonsillar abscess, mastoiditis, empyema, meningitis, intracranial abscess, and Lemierre’s syndrome, adjusting for age group, sex, region, deprivation fifth, RTI consultation rate, and general practice.Results From 2005 to 2014 the proportion of RTI consultations with antibiotics prescribed decreased from 53.9% to 50.5% in men and from 54.5% to 51.5% in women. From 2005 to 2014, new episodes of meningitis, mastoiditis, and peritonsillar abscess decreased annually by 5.3%, 4.6%, and 1.0%, respectively, whereas new episodes of pneumonia increased by 0.4%. Age and sex standardised incidences for pneumonia and peritonsillar abscess were higher for practices in the lowest fourth of antibiotic prescribing compared with the highest fourth. The adjusted relative risk increases for a 10% reduction in antibiotic prescribing were 12.8% (95% confidence interval 7.8% to 17.5%, P<0.001) for pneumonia and 9.9% (5.6% to 14.0%, P<0.001) for peritonsillar abscess. If a general practice with an average list size of 7000 patients reduces the proportion of RTI consultations with antibiotics prescribed by 10%, then it might observe 1.1 (95% confidence interval 0.6 to 1.5) more cases of pneumonia each year and 0.9 (0.5 to 1.3) more cases of peritonsillar abscess each decade. Mastoiditis, empyema, meningitis, intracranial abscess, and Lemierre’s syndrome were similar in frequency at low prescribing and high prescribing practices.Conclusions General practices that adopt a policy to reduce antibiotic prescribing for RTIs might expect a slight increase in the incidence of treatable pneumonia and peritonsillar abscess. No increase is likely in mastoiditis, empyema, bacterial meningitis, intracranial abscess, or Lemierre’s syndrome. Even a substantial reduction in antibiotic prescribing was predicted to be associated with only a small increase in numbers of cases observed overall, but caution might be required in subgroups at higher risk of pneumonia.

Objective To assess strategies for advice on analgesia and steam inhalation for respiratory tract infections.

Objective To document whether elements of a structured history and examination predict adverse outcome of acute sore throat.Design Prospective clinical cohort. Setting Primary care.Participants 14 610 adults with acute sore throat (≤2 weeks' duration). Main outcome measuresCommon suppurative complications (quinsy or peritonsillar abscess, otitis media, sinusitis, impetigo or cellulitis) and reconsultation with new or unresolving symptoms within one month. ResultsComplications were assessed reliably (inter-rater κ=0.95). 1.3% (177/13 445) of participants developed complications overall and 14.2% (1889/13 288) reconsulted with new or unresolving symptoms. Independent predictors of complications were severe tonsillar inflammation (documented among 13.0% (1652/12 717); odds ratio 1.92, 95% confidence interval 1.28 to 2.89) and severe earache (5% (667/13 323); 3.02, 1.91 to 4.76), but the model including both variables had modest prognostic utility (bootstrapped area under the receiver operator curve 0.61, 0.57 to 0.65), and 70% of complications (124/177) occurred when neither was present. Clinical prediction rules for bacterial infection (Centor criteria and FeverPAIN) also predicted complications, but predictive values were also poor and most complications occurred with low scores (67% (118/175) scoring ≤2 for Centor; 126/173 (73%) scoring ≤2 for FeverPAIN). Previous medical problems, sex, temperature, and muscle aches were independently but weakly associated with reconsultation with new or unresolving symptoms.

Objective To assess the risks of developing dementia associated with different types and durations of menopausal hormone therapy. Design Two nested case-control studies. Setting UK general practices contributing to QResearch or the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), using all links to hospital, mortality, and social deprivation data. Participants 118 501 women aged 55 and older with a primary diagnosis of dementia between 1998 and 2020, matched by age, general practice, and index date to 497 416 female controls. Main outcome measures Dementia diagnoses from general practice, mortality, and hospital records; odds ratios for menopausal hormone treatments adjusted for demographics, smoking status, alcohol consumption, comorbidities, family history, and other prescribed drugs. Results Overall, 16 291 (14%) women with a diagnosis of dementia and 68 726 (14%) controls had used menopausal hormone therapy more than three years before the index date. Overall, no increased risks of developing dementia associated with menopausal hormone therapy were observed. A decreased global risk of dementia was found among cases and controls younger than 80 years who had been taking oestrogen-only therapy for 10 years or more (adjusted odds ratio 0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 0.94). Increased risks of developing specifically Alzheimer’s disease were found among women who had used oestrogen-progestogen therapy for between five and nine years (1.11, 1.04 to 1.20) and for 10 years or more (1.19, 1.06 to 1.33). This was equivalent to, respectively, five and seven extra cases per 10 000 woman years. Detailed risk associations for the specific progestogens studied are also provided. Conclusion This study gives estimates for risks of developing dementia and Alzheimer’s disease in women exposed to different types of menopausal hormone therapy for different durations and has shown no increased risks of developing dementia overall. It has shown a slightly increased risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease among long term users of oestrogen-progestogen therapies.

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