[1] The simulations of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) strengthen previous assessments of a substantial role of anthropogenic emissions in driving precipitation changes in the Sahel, the semiarid region at the southern edge of the Sahara. Historical simulations can capture the magnitude of the centennial Sahel drying over the span of the 20th century and confirm that anthropogenic forcings have contributed substantially to it. Yet, the models do not reproduce the amplitude of observed oscillations at multidecadal timescales, suggesting that either oscillations in the forcing or the strength of natural variability are underestimated. Projections for Sahel rainfall are less robust than the 20th century hindcast and outlier projections persist, but overall the CMIP5 models confirm the CMIP3 results in many details and reaffirm the prediction of a rainy season that is more feeble at its start, especially in West Africa, and more abundant at its core across the entire Sahel. Out of 20 models, four buck this consensus. Idealized simulations from a subset of the CMIP5 ensemble-simulations designed to separate the fast land-atmosphere response to increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the slow response mediated through changes in sea surface temperature (SST)-confirm that the direct effect of CO 2 is to enhance the monsoon, while warmer SST induce drying over the Sahel. At the same time, these simulations suggest that the seasonal evolution of the rainfall trends in the scenario simulations, spring drying and fall wetting, is an inherently coupled response, not captured by the linear superposition of the fast and slow response to CO 2 .

[1] Recent paleoproxy records suggest that the mean latitude of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) varied synchronously with North Atlantic climate over a range of timescales throughout the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum. We show that the present-day ''meridional mode'' of atmosphere-ocean variability in the tropical Atlantic is a potentially useful model for understanding these paleoclimate changes. The tropical Atlantic in a coupled atmospheric general circulation and slab ocean model responds to Last Glacial Maximum conditions with a southward displacement of the ITCZ. This response arises primarily through the land ice sheet that forces increased North Atlantic trades analogous to the forcing on the present-day meridional mode. Changes to sea ice coverage and to ocean heat transport associated with a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation also cause a meridional mode response, though through different mechanisms. Our results highlight the potential for tropical Atlantic paleoclimate to be driven from the high latitude influences, in particular, land ice on glacial-interglacial timescales.

We describe the global climate system context in which to interpret African environmental change to support planning and implementation of policymaking action at national, regional and continental scales, and to inform the debate between proponents of mitigation v. adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. We review recent advances and current challenges in African climate research and exploit our physical understanding of variability and trends to shape our outlook on future climate change. We classify the various mechanisms that have been proposed as relevant for understanding variations in African rainfall, emphasizing a "tropospheric stabilization" mechanism that is of importance on interannual time scales as well as for the future response to warming oceans. Two patterns stand out in our analysis of twentieth century rainfall variability: a drying of the monsoon regions, related to warming of the tropical oceans, and variability related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The latest generation of climate models partly captures this recent continent-wide drying trend, attributing it to the combination of anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases, the relative contribution A. Giannini (B) Climatic Change (2008) 90:359-383 of which is difficult to quantify with the existing model archive. The same climate models fail to reach a robust agreement regarding the twenty-first century outlook for African rainfall, in a future with increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosol loadings. Such uncertainty underscores current limitations in our understanding of the global climate system that it is necessary to overcome if science is to support Africa in meeting its development goals.