ABSTRACTAssessing the relative importance of geographic and environmental factors to the spatial distribution of genetic variation may provide relevant information about the processes that maintain genetic variation in natural populations. With a globally wide but very restricted habitat distribution, mangrove trees are an interesting model for studies aiming to understand the contributions of these factors. Mangroves occur along the continent-ocean interface of tropical and subtropical latitudes, regions considered inhospitable to many other plant types. Here, we used landscape genomics approaches to investigate the relative contributions of geographic and environmental variables to the genetic variation of two black mangrove species, Avicennia schaueriana and Avicennia germinans, along the South American coast. Using single nucleotide polymorphisms, our results revealed an important role of ocean currents in the gene flow of A. schaueriana and isolation by environment as the pattern that best explains the genetic differentiation of A. germinans. Additionally, for both species, we observed significant correlations between genetic variation with evidence of selection and precipitation regimes, tidal variation, solar radiation and temperature patterns. These discoveries expand our knowledge about the evolution of mangrove trees and provide important information to predict future responses of coastal species to the expected global changes for this century.

Assessing the relative importance of geographical and environmental factors to the spatial distribution of genetic variation can provide information about the processes that maintain genetic variation in natural populations. With a globally wide but very restricted habitat distribution, mangrove trees are a useful model for studies aiming to understand the contributions of these factors. Mangroves occur along the continent–ocean interface of tropical and subtropical latitudes, regions considered inhospitable to many other types of plants. Here, we used landscape genomics approaches to investigate the relative contributions of geographical and environmental variables to the genetic variation of two black mangrove species, Avicennia schaueriana and Avicennia germinans, along the South American coast. Using single nucleotide polymorphisms, our results revealed an important role of ocean currents and geographical distance in the gene flow of A. schaueriana and an isolation-by-environment pattern in the organization of the genetic diversity of A. germinans. Additionally, for A. germinans, we observed significant correlations between genetic variation with evidence of selection and the influence of precipitation regimens, solar radiation and temperature patterns. These discoveries expand our knowledge about the evolution of mangrove trees and provide important information to predict future responses of coastal species to the expected global changes during this century.

Geographic and environmental differences have been identified as factors influencing Brazilian mangrove trees' genetic diversity. Geographically, distinct species have convergent spatial genetic structures, indicating a limited gene flow between northern and southern populations. Environmentally, genomic studies and common garden experiments have found evidence of local adaptations along the latitudinal gradient of the Brazilian coast. However, little is known about how such adaptive heterogeneity could be affected by a rapidly changing climate in the coming decades, and the combination of deforestation and climate-induced habitat loss may affect these forests and their genetic diversity. Here, we applied two genomic-environmental association methods to model the turnover of potentially adaptive alleles for two dominant mangrove trees: Avicennia germinans and A. schaueriana. We analyzed a total of 134 individuals from six populations of A. germinans and 10 populations of A. schaueriana spanning the Brazilian coast from 1 °S to 28 °S. Gradient forest models identified temperature-related variables as the most important predictors for A. germinans outlier loci, whereas both temperature and precipitation were important for A. schaueriana. We modeled allele frequencies and projected them for future climatic scenarios to estimate adaptively driven vulnerability. We assessed climate-driven habitat loss through climate-only distribution models and calculated annual deforestation rates for each sampled region. Finally, to assess the vulnerability of individual populations, we combined the environmental suitability, deforestation data, and adaptive vulnerability projections. For both species, subtropical populations presented a higher vulnerability than equatorial populations to climate-driven habitat loss. We also identified deforestation rates at the sampled sites that were alarmingly higher than the global average mangrove deforestation rate. Our results provide improved estimates of the impacts of ongoing climate change and human-caused habitat loss on the distribution of mangroves and highlight the importance of site-based conservation strategies that consider individual subtropical and equatorial mangrove forests.

Geographic and environmental differences have been identified as factors influencing Brazilian mangrove trees' genetic diversity. Geographically, distinct species have convergent spatial genetic structures, indicating a limited gene flow between northern and southern populations. Environmentally, genomic studies and common garden experiments have found evidence of local adaptations along the latitudinal gradient of the Brazilian coast. However, little is known about how such adaptive heterogeneity could be affected by a rapidly changing climate in the coming decades, and the combination of deforestation and climate-induced habitat loss may affect these forests and their genetic diversity. Here, we applied two genomic-environmental association methods to model the turnover of potentially adaptive alleles for two dominant mangrove trees: Avicennia germinans and A. schaueriana. We analyzed a total of 134 individuals from six populations of A. germinans and ten populations of A. schaueriana spanning the Brazilian coast from 1oS to 28oS. Gradient forest models identified temperature-related variables as the most important predictors for A. germinans outlier loci, whereas both temperature and precipitation were important for A. schaueriana. We modeled allele frequencies and projected them for future climatic scenarios to estimate adaptively driven vulnerability. We assessed climate-driven habitat loss through climate-only distribution models and calculated annual deforestation rates for each sampled region. Finally, to assess the vulnerability of individual populations, we combined the environmental suitability, deforestation data, and adaptive vulnerability projections. For both species, subtropical populations presented a higher vulnerability than equatorial populations to climate-driven habitat loss. We also identified deforestation rates at the sampled sites that were alarmingly higher than the global average mangrove deforestation rate. Our results provide improved estimates of the impacts of ongoing climate change and human-caused habitat loss on the distribution of mangroves and highlight the importance of site-based conservation strategies that consider individual subtropical and equatorial mangrove forests.