A three-wave, prospective panel design was used to assess the extent to which static and dynamic risk factors could predict criminal recidivism in a sample of 136 adult male offenders released from Canadian federal prisons. Static measures were assessed only once, prior to release while dynamic measures were assessed on three separate occasions: pre-release, 1 month, and 3 months post-release. Recidivism was coded during an average of 10.2-month follow-up period (SD = 19.2). A series of Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess predictive validity. Although the combined static and time-dependent dynamic model (AUC = .89, CI = .81–.93) significantly (p < .01) outperformed the pure static model (AUC = .81, CI = .73– .87) the confidence intervals did overlap to some extent. Implications for dynamic risk assessment and management are discussed.

Research reveals public dissatisfaction with perceived leniency of the criminal justice system. However, when asked to sentence hypothetical offenders, members of the public tend to choose dispositions similar to what current court practices prescribe. In two studies reported here, subjects completed a mock sentencing exercise and a general attitude survey. In an initial pilot study, they expressed general dissatisfaction with the criminal justice system but the relative punitiveness of their sentences (in terms of their perceptions of how severe various sentencing options are) was only slightly elevated above a set of reference sentences. Providing a typical judge's sentencing decisions did not decrease dissatisfaction but was associated with an anchoring effect. This effect was explored in the main study by manipulating the provided reference sentences to be either lenient, moderate, or punitive. Again, participants expressed general dissatisfaction with the criminal justice system but prescribed generally moderate sentences, anchoring their sentences to the information provided. However, only those exposed to moderate "typical" sentences subsequently reported reduced dissatisfaction with the criminal justice system.Public opinion polls, such as those conducted for the Canadian Sentencing Commission (summarized in Roberts, 1988) and those done by Sacco and Johnson (1990), have typically indicated public dissatisfaction with the criminal justice system in Canada. In particular, the public tends to be of the opinion that the system is too lenient, that sentences should be more severe, and that parole boards are too liberal in granting early release.Perceptions of judicial leniency are also found in the United States, Great Britain, and Australia (Roberts, 1992) and they have been on the rise over the last few decades. In Canada, the proportion of survey respondents believing that the system is "too soft" rose from two thirds in 1970 to 82% in 199482% in (Roberts, 1994.

No abstract