Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-week horizon 3-5 times larger than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks. Significance Statement This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the US. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models, and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public health action.

This article presents the core technologies and deployment strategies of Team CERBERUS that enabled our winning run in the DARPA Subterranean Challenge finals. CERBERUS is a robotic system-of-systems involving walking and flying robots presenting resilient autonomy, as well as mapping and navigation capabilities to explore complex underground environments.

Autonomous exploration of subterranean environments constitutes a major frontier for robotic systems, as underground settings present key challenges that can render robot autonomy hard to achieve. This problem has motivated the DARPA Subterranean Challenge, where teams of robots search for objects of interest in various underground environments. In response, we present the CERBERUS system-of-systems, as a unified strategy for subterranean exploration using legged and flying robots. Our proposed approach relies on ANYmal quadraped as primary robots, exploiting their endurance and ability to traverse challenging terrain. For aerial robots, we use both conventional and collision-tolerant multirotors to explore spaces too narrow or otherwise unreachable by ground systems. Anticipating degraded sensing conditions, we developed a complementary multimodal sensor-fusion approach, utilizing camera, LiDAR, and inertial data for resilient robot pose estimation. Individual robot pose estimates are refined by a centralized multi-robot map-optimization approach to improve the reported location accuracy of detected objects of interest in the DARPA-defined coordinate frame. Furthermore, a unified exploration path-planning policy is presented to facilitate the autonomous operation of both legged and aerial robots in complex underground networks. Finally, to enable communication among team agents and the base station, CERBERUS utilizes a ground rover with a high-gain antenna and an optical fiber connection to the base station and wireless “breadcrumb” nodes deployed by the legged robots. We report results from the CERBERUS system-of-systems deployment at the DARPA Subterranean Challenge’s Tunnel and Urban Circuit events, along with the current limitations and the lessons learned for the benefit of the community.

This paper presents a novel strategy for autonomous teamed exploration of subterranean environments using legged and aerial robots. Tailored to the fact that subterranean settings, such as cave networks and underground mines, often involve complex, large-scale and multi-branched topologies, while wireless communication within them can be particularly challenging, this work is structured around the synergy of an onboard exploration path planner that allows for resilient long-term autonomy, and a multi-robot coordination framework. The onboard path planner is unified across legged and flying robots and enables navigation in environments with steep slopes, and diverse geometries. When a communication link is available, each robot of the team shares submaps to a centralized location where a multi-robot coordination framework identifies global frontiers of the exploration space to inform each system about where it should re-position to best continue its mission. The strategy is verified through a field deployment inside an underground mine in Switzerland using a legged and a flying robot collectively exploring for 45min, as well as a longer simulation study with three systems.