SummaryBackgroundThe population infected with HIV is getting older and these people will increasingly develop age-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to quantify the scale of the change and the implications for HIV care in the Netherlands in the future.MethodsWe constructed an individual-based model of the ageing HIV-infected population, which followed patients on HIV treatment as they age, develop NCDs—including cardiovascular disease (hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, myocardial infarctions, and strokes), diabetes, chronic kidney disease, osteoporosis, and non-AIDS malignancies—and start co-medication for these diseases. The model was parameterised by use of data for 10 278 patients from the national Dutch ATHENA cohort between 1996 and 2010. We made projections up to 2030.FindingsOur model suggests that the median age of HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) will increase from 43·9 years in 2010 to 56·6 in 2030, with the proportion of HIV-infected patients aged 50 years or older increasing from 28% in 2010 to 73% in 2030. In 2030, we predict that 84% of HIV-infected patients will have at least one NCD, up from 29% in 2010, with 28% of HIV-infected patients in 2030 having three or more NCDs. 54% of HIV-infected patients will be prescribed co-medications in 2030, compared with 13% in 2010, with 20% taking three or more co-medications. Most of this change will be driven by increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease and associated drugs. Because of contraindications and drug–drug interactions, in 2030, 40% of patients could have complications with the currently recommended first-line HIV regimens.InterpretationThe profile of patients in the Netherlands infected with HIV is changing, with increasing numbers of older patients with multiple morbidities. These changes mean that, in the near future, HIV care will increasingly need to draw on a wide range of medical disciplines, in addition to evidence-based screening and monitoring protocols to ensure continued high-quality care. These findings are based on a large dataset of HIV-infected patients in the Netherlands, but we believe that the overall patterns will be repeated elsewhere in Europe and North America. The implications of such a trend for care of HIV-infected patients in high-burden countries in Africa could present a particular challenge.FundingMedical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Rush Foundation, and Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport.

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BackgroundCountry-specific forecasts of the growing non-communicable disease (NCD) burden in ageing HIV-positive patients will be key to guide future HIV policies. We provided the first national forecasts for Italy and the Unites States of America (USA) and quantified direct cost of caring for these increasingly complex patients.Methods and SettingWe adapted an individual-based model of ageing HIV-positive patients to Italy and the USA, which followed patients on HIV-treatment as they aged and developed NCDs (chronic kidney disease, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, non-AIDS malignancies, myocardial infarctions and strokes). The models were parameterised using data on 7,469 HIV-positive patients from the Italian Cohort Naïve to Antiretrovirals Foundation Study and 3,748 commercially-insured patients in the USA and extrapolated to national level using national surveillance data.ResultsThe model predicted that mean age of HIV-positive patients will increase from 46 to 59 in Italy and from 49 to 58 in the USA in 2015–2035. The proportion of patients in Italy and the USA diagnosed with ≥1 NCD is estimated to increase from 64% and 71% in 2015 to 89% and 89% by 2035, respectively, driven by moderate cardiovascular disease (CVD) (hypertension and dyslipidaemia), diabetes and malignancies in both countries. NCD treatment costs as a proportion of total direct HIV costs will increase from 11% to 23% in Italy and from 40% to 56% in the USA in 2015–2035.ConclusionsHIV patient profile in Italy and the USA is shifting to older patients diagnosed with multiple co-morbidity. This will increase NCD treatment costs and require multi-disciplinary patient management.

Purpose of Review Evidence-based strategies are needed to address the growing complexity of care of those ageing with HIV so that as life expectancy is extended, quality of life is also enhanced. Recent Findings Modifiable contributing factors to the quantity and quality of life in adults ageing with HIV include: burden of harmful health behaviours, injury from HIV infection, HIV treatment toxicity, and general burden of age-associated comorbidities. In turn, these factors contribute to geriatric syndromes including multimorbidity and polypharmacy, physiologic frailty, falls and fragility fractures, and cognitive dysfunction, which further compromise the quality of life long before they lead to mortality. Summary Viral suppression of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) with combination antiviral therapy (cART) has led to increasing longevity but has not enabled a complete return to health among ageing HIV-infected individuals (HIV+). As adults age with HIV, the role of HIV itself and associated inflammation, effects of exposure to antiretroviral agents, the high prevalence of modifiable risk factors for age-associated conditions (e.g. smoking), and the effects of other viral coinfections are all influencing the health trajectory of persons ageing with HIV. We must move from the simplistic notion of HIV becoming a “chronic controllable illness” to understanding the continually evolving “treated” history of HIV infection with the burden of age-associated conditions and geriatric syndromes in the context of an altered and ageing immune system.