While recent supernova cosmology research has benefited from improved measurements, current analysis approaches are not statistically optimal and will prove insufficient for future surveys. This paper discusses the limitations of current supernova cosmological analyses in treating outliers, selection effects, shape-and color-standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations. We present a new Bayesian framework, called UNITY (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to confront these effects. We apply the framework to real supernova observations and demonstrate smaller statistical and systematic uncertainties. We verify earlier results that SNe Ia require nonlinear shape and color standardizations, but we now include these nonlinear relations in a statistically well-justified way. This analysis was primarily performed blinded, in that the basic framework was first validated on simulated data before transitioning to real data. We also discuss possible extensions of the method.

The See Change survey was designed to make z > 1 cosmological measurements by efficiently discovering high-redshift Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and improving cluster mass measurements through weak lensing. This survey observed twelve galaxy clusters with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) spanning the redshift range z = 1.13–1.75, discovering 57 likely transients and 27 likely SNe Ia at z ∼ 0.8–2.3. As in similar previous surveys, this proved to be a highly efficient use of HST for supernova observations; the See Change survey additionally tested the feasibility of maintaining, or further increasing, the efficiency at yet higher redshifts, where we have less detailed information on the expected cluster masses and star formation rates. We find that the resulting number of SNe Ia per orbit is a factor of ∼8 higher than for a field search, and 45% of our orbits contained an active SN Ia within 22 rest-frame days of peak, with one of the clusters by itself yielding 6 of the SNe Ia. We present the survey design, pipeline, and supernova discoveries. Novel features include fully blinded supernova searches, the first random forest candidate classifier for undersampled IR data (with a 50% detection threshold within 0.05 mag of human searchers), real-time forward-modeling photometry of candidates, and semi-automated photometric classifications and follow-up forecasts. We also describe the spectroscopic follow-up, instrumental in measuring host galaxy redshifts. The cosmology analysis of our sample will be presented in a companion paper.

Within the next decade, atmospheric O2 on Earth-like M-dwarf planets may be accessible with visible–near-infrared (NIR), high-spectral-resolution, ground-based extremely large telescope (ELT) instruments. However, the prospects for using ELTs to detect environmental properties that provide context for O2 have not been thoroughly explored. Additional molecules may help indicate planetary habitability, rule out abiotically generated O2, or reveal alternative biosignatures. To understand the accessibility of environmental context using ELT spectra, we simulate high-resolution transit transmission spectra of previously generated evolved terrestrial atmospheres. We consider inhabited preindustrial and Archean Earth–like atmospheres, and lifeless worlds with abiotic O2 buildup from CO2 and H2O photolysis. All atmospheres are self-consistent with M2V–M8V dwarf host stars. Our simulations include explicit treatment of systematic and telluric effects to model high-resolution spectra for Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT), Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT), and European ELT (E-ELT) configurations for systems 5 and 12 pc from Earth. Using the cross-correlation technique, we determine the detectability of major species in these atmospheres: O2, O3, CH4, CO2, CO, H2O, and C2H6. Our results suggest that CH4 and CO2 are the most accessible molecules for terrestrial planets transiting a range of M-dwarf hosts using an E-ELT-, TMT-, or GMT-sized telescope, and that the O2 NIR and H2O 0.9 μm bands may also be accessible with more observation time. Although this technique still faces considerable challenges, the ELTs will provide access to the atmospheres of terrestrial planets transiting earlier-type M-dwarf hosts that may not be possible using JWST.

Spectroscopic studies of planets outside of our own solar system provide some of the most crucial information about their formation, evolution, and atmospheric properties. In ground-based spectroscopy, the process of extracting the planets signal from the stellar and telluric signal has proven to be the most difficult barrier to accurate atmospheric information. However, with novel normalization and smoothing methods, this barrier can be minimized and the detection significance dramatically increased over existing methods. In this paper, we take two examples of CRIRES emission spectroscopy taken of HD 209458 b and HD 179949 b, and apply SPORK (SPectral cOntinuum Refinement for telluriKs) and iterative smoothing to boost the detection significance from 5.78 to 9.71σ, and from 4.38σ to 6.89σ, respectively. These methods, which largely address systematic quirks introduced by imperfect detectors or reduction pipelines, can be employed in a wide variety of scenarios, from archival data sets to simulations of future spectrographs.