This paper investigates whether and how key macro-fundamentals in Serbia affect the volumes of issued loans of Erste bank to public and business sector in Serbia. We made an effort to determine which particular macro factor has the highest influence on issued credits of Erste bank, and to measure the exact average magnitude of these influences. The main idea is to find out how GDP, inflation, central bank referent interest rate, exchange rate changes and Euribor affect short-term and long-term credit activity of Erste bank in Serbia. The computations are done by applying several multivariate regression models in which dependant variables are the volume of issued credits towards civil sector and enterprises. Based on the results, we can report that Euribor is the most important factor of all scrutinized macro-aggregates, since it affects most of the analysed bank loans. Besides Euribor, we find that other macro fundamentals influence the issued loans only sporadically. In other words, the level of GDP and inflation affect only long-term loans for businesses, while referent interest rate influences only short-term loans for public. We find that exchange rate changes have no effect on any loan of Erste bank, whatsoever, which clearly indicates that the bank protects itself very successfully against this type of macro risk.

Сажетак: Пословање предузећа у савременим тржишно-економским условима је изразито турбулентно, и захтева стално прилагођавање тим условима. Константне иновације у техничко-технолошком и економском смислу, пре свега адекватно управљање новчаним токовима као и прибављање и улагање новчаних средстава, представљају "conditio sine qua non" сваког модерног предузећа. Најбржи и најзаступљенији вид прибављања додатних средстава јесте позајмњивања од стране кредитора. Кредитори морају да процене да ли је једно предузеће кредитно способно, на основу достављених података, пре него му одобри средства. Циљ научног рада јесте да прикаже могућност да се путем статистичких модела уз примену квантитативних индикатора (аналитичких показатења) предузећа, може стећи довољно добро становиште како би се донела прелиминарна оцена о кредитној способности предузећа.

The main issue for all creditors in the Republic of Serbia is how to effectively lend to companies, with adequate increase of rate of return. Namely, domestic creditors are using traditional credit analysis methods, which are very slow and very expensive, or on the other hand using one of the world most developed models for assessing company's creditworthiness, which are still not adapted to the characteristics and performance of domestic companies. It is emphasized from a professional and practical standpoint, that the models for assessing company's creditworthiness developed for individual market, give significantly better results than other "standardized models", and this represents the basic assumption of this research. Financial statements of domestic companies, together with their analytical indicators, in best way reflect their characteristics. As such, they are the basis for developing a model for assessing companies' creditworthiness, which is the main goal of the research. The hypothesis of the paper is "Respecting the characteristics of domestic companies, it is possible to develop a creditworthiness analysis model for the Republic of Serbia, that will be more efficient than generally known models". The result of the research is a model that can be practically applied, which contributes to increasing efficiency in decision making, and which should represent "condition sine qua non" of each lender in Serbia.

No abstract

The ground floor for deciding on the purchase or sale of shares or entire enterprises, recapitalization and other investment transactions are obtained in two basic understandings of value, the market price and the intrinsic value of companies. The price of shares or companies as a whole is the result of the supply and demand relationship and as such can be determined if there is an active market. On perfectly efficient markets, stock prices should match its intrinsic value. The intrinsic value is determined in the valuation process that requires the application of the selected valuation models. Market valuation models, on the one hand, rely on traditional models of valuation, while on the other hand they involve in valuation process information and * dusansakovic@yahoo.com Dušan Saković, Miloš Ilić | 147 ŠKOLA BIZNISA, 1/2018, 146 -157 tendencies from the market. The aim of this paper is to examine the role of these models in investment decision-making processes.