The atmospheric response to the spring Kuroshio Front over the East China Sea is investigated using a suite of high-resolution satellite data and a regional atmospheric model. The atmospheric response appears to extend beyond the marine atmospheric boundary layer, with frequent occurrence of cumulus convection.In spring, Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind speed shows a clear effect of sea surface temperature (SST), with high (low) wind speed observed over the warm (cold) tongue. This in-phase relationship between SST and surface wind speed is indicative of SST influence on the atmosphere. Wind convergence is found on the warmer flank of the Kuroshio Front, accompanied by a narrow rainband. The analysis of satellite-borne radar measurements indicates that deep convection appears over the Kuroshio warm tongue in the spring season, with enhanced convective precipitation, frequent occurrence of cumulus convection, and increased precipitation (cloud) tops in altitude. These deep convective activities along the Kuroshio warm tongue are further supported by enhanced lightning flash rate observed by satellite and atmospheric heating estimated by a Japanese reanalysis.The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate the precipitation response to the spring Kuroshio SST front over the East China Sea. Forced by observed SST [control (CTL)], the model well simulates a narrow band of precipitation, high wind speed, and surface wind convergence that closely follows the Kuroshio warm current, consistent with satellite observations. This narrow rainband completely disappears in the model when the SST front is removed by horizontally smoothed SST (SmSST). The results show that it is convective precipitation that is sensitive to the Kuroshio SST front. A case study for an eastward-moving extratropical cyclone indicates that convective precipitation increases its intensity and duration in the CTL run compared to the SmSST run. Local enhancement of upward sensible and latent heat fluxes and convective instability in the lower atmosphere are the key to anchoring the narrow band of convective precipitation that closely follows the Kuroshio.

Atmospheric responses to the Kuroshio SST front in the East China Sea under different prevailing winds are examined using high-resolution observations and numerical modeling. Satellite data reveal a significant in-phase relationship between SST and surface wind speed, indicative of ocean-to-atmosphere influence. The atmospheric response varies according to the relative surface wind direction with respect to the SST front orientation. Under the alongfront condition, low (high) SLP anomalies are found on the warmer (colder) flank of the front, accompanied by surface wind convergence (divergence). Enhanced precipitation and frequent cumulus convection appear over the warm Kuroshio, suggesting an atmospheric response extending into the free troposphere. Under the cross-front condition, when the air blows from cold to warm (warm to cold) SST, divergence (convergence) is located directly over the SST front, and its magnitude is proportional to the downwind SST gradient. Under such prevailing winds, the SST front has little effect on the SLP and precipitation. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used to investigate the mechanism responsible for the atmospheric adjustment. The results show that under the alongfront condition, large temperature and pressure perturbations in the boundary layer are caused by SST gradients, while stability and turbulent mixing are less affected. By contrast, under the cross-front condition, the perturbations of temperature and pressure are small and shifted downstream, while the SST gradient exerts stronger impact on vertical mixing. The modeling results confirm that the pressure adjustment mechanism contributes more to the atmospheric response under alongfront prevailing winds, while the vertical mixing mechanism dominates the atmospheric adjustment under cross-front winds.

This paper studies how the anthropogenic‐induced global warming affects the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) by using 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The simulated present‐day EAWM is evaluated and future projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are presented in terms of the climatology and interannual variability. All 26 models can well reproduce the spatial pattern of EAWM climatology and 16 out of the 26 models can reasonably capture major features of interannual variability. The projection made by 26‐model ensemble mean indicate that winter surface air temperature averaged over 20°–60°N, 100°–140°E will increase by 3 °C in RCP4.5 and 5.5 °C in RCP8.5 towards the end of the 21st century. The corresponding regional mean precipitation will increase by 12.3% in RCP4.5 and 21.8% in RCP8.5. The strong warming over high‐latitude North Pacific due to melting sea ice in the Bering Sea and Okhotsk Sea leads to significant intensification and a northward shift of the Aleutian Low, resulting in prominent increase in the low‐level northerly along the coastal regions of northeastern Asia. At 500 hPa the characteristic East Asian Trough is projected to weaken slightly and tilt more eastward with latitude. The selected 16‐model ensemble mean projects future enhanced interannual variability of surface air temperature and sea‐level pressure over mid‐latitude North Pacific and high‐latitude East Asia (EA) and reduced variability over eastern China, suggesting that the EAWM will be more variable in the high‐latitude EA and mid‐latitude North Pacific but less variable in East China. Accordingly, the year‐to‐year precipitation variability will be significantly enhanced over high‐latitude EA. Majority of the 26 models project that the leading mode of EAWM interannual variation (the ‘northern mode’) will become more dominant in the warmer climate.

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