Rice planthoppers and associated virus diseases have become the most important pests threatening food security in China and other Asian countries, incurring costs of hundreds of millions of US dollars annually in rice losses, and in expensive, environmentally harmful, and often futile control efforts. The most economically damaging species, the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), cannot overwinter in temperate East Asia, and infestations there are initiated by several waves of windborne spring or summer migrants originating from tropical areas in Indochina. The interaction of these waves of migrants and synoptic weather patterns, driven by the semi-permanent western Pacific subtropical high-pressure (WPSH) system, is of critical importance in forecasting the timing and intensity of immigration events and determining the seriousness of subsequent planthopper build-up in the rice crop. We analysed a 26-year data set from a standardised light trap network in Southern China, showing that planthopper aerial transport and concentration processes are associated with the characteristics (strength and position) of the WPSH in the year concerned. Then, using N. lugens abundance in source areas and indices of WPSH intensity or related sea surface temperature anomalies, we developed a model to predict planthopper numbers immigrating into the key rice-growing area of the Lower Yangtze Valley. We also demonstrate that these WPSH-related climatic indices combined with early-season planthopper catches can be used to forecast, several months in advance, the severity of that season's N. lugens infestations (the correlation between model predictions and outcomes was 0.59), thus allowing time for effective control measures to be implemented.Keywords Nilaparvata lugens · Windborne insect migration · Atmospheric circulation · Rice pests · Planthopper risk prediction · Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system Key message• East Asia has experienced a resurgence of serious rice planthopper outbreaks in recent years. In one of the worst-affected areas, the Lower Yangtze Valley of China, the number and timing of brown planthopper immigrants from further south has a major influence on the risk of local outbreaks.• Here we show how seasonal outbreak risk can be predicted from indices of the intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system, a major atmospheric circulation system that drives the synoptic weather patterns affecting planthopper immigration.Communicated by V. Gagic. Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (https ://doi

An effective control strategy for migratory pests is difficult to implement because the cause of infestation (i.e., immigration or local reproduction) is often not established. In particular, the outbreak mechanisms of the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stål), an insect causing massive losses in rice fields in the Yangtze River Delta in China, are frequently unclear. Field surveys of N. lugens were performed in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces in 2008 to 2010 and related historical data from 2003 onwards were collected and analyzed to clarify the cause of these infestations. Results showed that outbreaks of N. lugens in the Yangtze River Delta were mostly associated with an extremely high increase in population. Thus, reproduction rather than immigration from distant sources were the cause of the infestations. Although mass migration occurred late in the season (late August and early September), the source areas of N. lugens catches in the Yangtze River Delta were mainly located in nearby areas, including the Yangtze River Delta itself, Anhui and northern Jiangxi Provinces. These regions collectively form the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the late migration can thus be considered as an internal bioflow within one population.

Many moths finish their long distance migration after consecutive nights, but little is known about migration duration and distance. This information is key to predicting migration pathways and understanding their evolution. Tethered flight experiments have shown that ovarian development of rice leaf folder (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis [Guenée]) moths was accelerated and synchronized by flight in the first three nights, whereby most females were then matured for mating and reproduction. Thus, it was supposed that this moth might fly three nights to complete its migration. To test this hypothesis, 9 year’s field data for C. medinalis was collected from Nanning, Guangxi Autonomous Region in China. Forward trajectories indicated that most moths arrived at suitable breeding areas after three nights’ flight. Thus, for C. medinalis this migration duration and distance was a reasonable adaptation to the geographic distribution of suitable habitat. The development of female moth ovaries after three consecutive night flights appears to be a well-balanced survival strategy for this species to strike between migration and reproduction benefits. Hence, an optimum solution of migration-reproduction trade-offs in energy allocation evolved in response to the natural selection on migration route and physiological traits.

Rice planthopper (RPH) populations of Nilaparvata lugens and Sogatella furcifera periodically have erupted across Asia. Predicting RPH population dynamics and identifying their source areas are crucial for the management of these migratory pests in China, but the origins of the migrants to temperate and subtropical regions in China remains unclear. In particular, their early migration to China in March and April have not yet been explored due to a lack of research data available from potential source areas, Central Vietnam and Laos. In this study, we examined the population dynamics and migratory paths of N. lugens and S. furcifera in Vietnam and South China in 2012 and 2013. Trajectory modeling showed that in March and April in 2012 and 2013, RPH emigrated from source areas in Central Vietnam where rice was maturing to the Red River Delta and South China. Early migrants originated from Southern Central Vietnam (14-16°N), but later most were from Northern Central Vietnam (16-19°N). Analysis of meteorological and light-trap data from Hepu in April (1977-2013) using generalized linear models showed that immigration increased with precipitation in Southern Central Vietnam in January, but declined with precipitation in Northern Central Vietnam in January. These results determined that the RPH originate from overwintering areas in Central Vietnam, but not from southernmost areas of Vietnam. Winter precipitation, rather than temperature was the most important factor determining the number of RPH migrants. Based on their similar population dynamics and low population densities in Central Vietnam, we further speculated that RPH migrate to track ephemeral food resources whilst simultaneously avoiding predators. Migrations do not seem to be initiated by interspecific competition, overcrowding or host deterioration. Nevertheless, S. furcifera establishes populations earlier than N. lugens South China, perhaps to compensate for interspecific competition. We provide new information that could assist with forecasting outbreaks and implementing control measures against these migratory pests.

Migratory insects adapt to and exploit the atmospheric environment to complete their migration and maintain their population. However, little is known about the mechanism of insect migration under the influence of extreme weather conditions such as typhoons. A case study was conducted to investigate the effect of typhoon Khanun, which made landfall in the eastern China in Sept. 2005, on the migration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stål). The migration pathways of N. lugens were reconstructed for the period under the influence of the typhoon by calculating trajectories using the MM5, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, and migration events were examined in 7 counties of the Yangtze River Delta region with ancillary information. The light trap catches and field observations indicated that the migration peak of N. lugens coincided with the period when the typhoon made landfall in this region. The trajectory analyses revealed that most emigrations from this region during this period were hampered or ended in short distances. The sources of the light-trap catches were mainly located the nearby regions of each station (i.e. mostly less than 100 km away, with a few exceeding 200 km but all less than 300 km). This disrupted emigration was very different from the usual N. lugens migration which would bring them to Hunan, Jiangxi, and southern Anhui from this region at this time of year. This study revealed that the return migration of N. lugens was suppressed by the typhoon Khanun, leading to populations remaining high in the Yangtze River Delta and exacerbating later outbreaks.