Climate change has greatly impacted hydrological regimes of lakes in sub-trophic and trophic areas. The uncertainties surrounding conventional future hydrological simulation methods with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase (CMIP) climate models have long been debated. However, it is crucial to obtain an accurate assessment result to help with better decision-making. In this study, we used the Lake Dianchi Basin (LDB) as a case study to demonstrate the use of a sub-catchment scale integrated model framework to obtain detailed hydrological simulation results and a comprehensive impact assessment of climate change on hydrological regimes. The results showed that 1) For the sub trophic lake basin LDB, its hydrological regimes are signi cantly impacted by climate change. Precipitation change impacted greater than air temperature change. 2) The 19 hydrological indicators showed large variations among the 18 climate scenarios. Precipitation impacted much greater than air temperature, and wet season might be impacted more by climate change. Climate change might impact more on 1/3/7-day minimums/maximums than 30/90-day minimums/maximums. 3) Enormous ecological and socio-economic risk for the LDB were indicated as its hydrologic regime is vulnerable to climate change. Among all six sub-catchments, Sub_06, characterized by a hilly landscape, would be impacted the most by climate change. 4) This study showed that, in regions with complex climatic conditions and topography, it is necessary to simulate hydrological states at the sub-catchment scale and differences of responses of each indicator to climate change should be fully considered.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.