Ocean-atmospheric phenomena (OAP) have been found to be associated with regional climate variability and, in turn, agricultural production. Previous research has shown that advance information on OAP and its climate implications could provide valuable opportunities to adjust agriculture practices. In this study, we review OAP effects on crop yields, covering both shorter-term El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and longer-term ocean-related decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena, such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Tropical Atlantic Gradient (TAG), and the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). We review both statistical approaches and simulation models that have been used to assess OAP impacts on crop yields. Findings show heterogeneous impacts across crops, regions, OAP phases, and seasons. Evidence also indicates that more frequent and extreme OAP phases would damage agriculture. However, economic gains could be achieved via adaptation strategies responding to the early release of OAP phase information. Discussions on current knowledge gaps and future research issues are included.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) trading markets have been widely discussed for climate change mitigation. However in implementation coverage has not been universal. Agriculture, despite being the source of nearly 25% of net emissions, has not commonly been capped. But it has been mentioned as voluntary source of net emission offsets. Such offsets could arise from action reducing GHG emissions, enhancing sequestration, or producing feedstocks for low emitting bioenergy replacements for fossil based energy. This could be harnessed by setting up voluntary carbon markets that producers could join at their discretion. However, such a scheme could have unintended consequences. We conduct theoretical and empirical analyses of a voluntary “carbon” market examining both intended and unintended effects. We find certain participation rules can stimulate rebound effects from emitters and suppress participation from sequestration and bioenergy producing entities. To overcome this we develop and simulate offset participation limitations that could preclude unintended consequences.

Livestock production is a valuable part of US agriculture as it contributes 50% of total agricultural value. Climate change is likely a threat to livestock production, but research regarding the impact of climate change on livestock sectors is limited. This paper examines how climate change affects livestock mix and location. Specifically, we examine climate effects on grazing animals and, in particular, on beef cattle, dairy cattle, goats, and sheep. We examine this in the US based on county-level data by using fractional multinomial logit econometrics. Our results show that climate is an influential determinant of where livestock herds are located and species mix. The impacts of climate vary by species and region. We also find significant influences from geographic characteristics and animal product prices. Subsequently, we project how climate change would influence future livestock mix and location. It reveals a likely growth in beef cow land shares across most of the US with the largest gains in the northwest. We also find substitutions between species as climate change progresses with dairy cows exhibiting the largest reduction.