Atomic partial charges are among the most commonly used interpretive tools in quantum chemistry. Dozens of different 'population analyses' are in use, which are best seen as proxies (indirect gauges) rather than measurements of a 'general ionicity'. For the GMTKN55 benchmark of nearly 2,500 maingroup molecules, which span a broad swathe of chemical space, some two dozen different charge distributions were evaluated at the PBE0 level near the 1-particle basis set limit. The correlation matrix between the different charge distributions exhibits a block structure; blocking is, broadly speaking, by charge distribution class. A principal component analysis on the entire dataset suggests that nearly all variation can be accounted for by just two 'principal components of ionicity': one has all the distributions going in sync, while the second corresponds mainly to Bader QTAIM vs. all others. A weaker third component corresponds to electrostatic charge models in opposition to the orbital-based ones. The single charge distributions that have the greatest statistical similarity to the first principal component are iterated Hirshfeld (Hirshfeld-I) and a minimal-basis projected modification of Bickelhaupt charges. If three individual variables, rather than three principal components, are to be identified that contain most of the information in the whole dataset, one representative for each of the three classes of Corminboeuf et al. is needed: one based on partitioning of the density (such as QTAIM), a second based on orbital partitioning (such as NPA), and a third based on the molecular electrostatic potential (such as HLY or CHELPG).

We present an ab initio auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo method for studying the electronic structure of molecules, solids, and model Hamiltonians at finite temperature. The algorithm marries the ab initio phaseless auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo algorithm known to produce high accuracy ground state energies of molecules and solids with its finite temperature variant, long used by condensed matter physicists for studying model Hamiltonian phase diagrams, to yield a phaseless, ab initio finite temperature method. We demonstrate that the method produces internal energies within chemical accuracy of exact diagonalization results across a wide range of temperatures for HO (STO-3G), C (STO-6G), the one-dimensional hydrogen chain (STO-6G), and the multiorbital Hubbard model. Our method effectively controls the phase problem through importance sampling, often even without invoking the phaseless approximation, down to temperatures at which the systems studied approach their ground states and may therefore be viewed as exact over wide temperature ranges. This technique embodies a versatile tool for studying the finite temperature phase diagrams of a plethora of systems whose properties cannot be captured by a Hubbard U term alone. Our results moreover illustrate that the severity of the phase problem for model Hamiltonians far exceeds that for many molecules at all of the temperatures studied.