Climate change, through changes in temperature, precipitation, and frequency of extreme events, has influenced agricultural production and food security over the past several decades. In order to assess climate and weather-related risks to fruit and grape production in Serbia, changes in bioclimatic indices and frequency of the occurrence of unfavourable weather events are spatially analysed for the past two decades (1998–2017) and the standard climatological period 1961–1990. Between the two periods, the Winkler and Huglin indices changed into a warmer category in most of the viticultural regions of Serbia. The average change shift was about 200 m towards higher elevations. Regarding the frequency of spring frost, high summer temperatures and water deficit, the most vulnerable regions in terms of fruit and grape production are found alongside large rivers (Danube, Sava, Great and South Morava), as well as in the northern part of the country. Regions below 300 m are under increased risk of high summer temperatures, as the number and duration of occurrences increased significantly over the studied periods. The high-resolution spatial analysis presented here gives an assessment of the climate change influence on the fruit and grapes production. The presented approach may be used in regional impact assessments and national planning of adaptation measures, and it may help increase resilience of agricultural production to climate change.

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The Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System (IAPS) was a two-year project for the development of the long term forecast (LRF) for agricultural producers. Using LRF in decision-making, to reduce the risks and seize the opportunities, represents short-term adaptation to climate change. High-resolution ensemble forecasts (51 forecasts) were made for a period of 7 months and were initiated on the first day of each month. For the initial testing of the capacity of LRF to provide useful information for producers, 2017 was chosen as the test year as it had a very hot summer and severe drought, which caused significant impacts on agricultural production. LRF was very useful in predicting the variables which bear the memory of the longer period, such are growing degree days for the prediction of dates of the phenophases’ occurrences and the soil moisture of deeper soil layers as an indicator for the drought. Other project activities included field observations, communication with producers, web portal development, etc. Our results showed that the selected priority forecasting products were also identified by the producers as being the highest weather-related risks, the operational forecast implementation with the products designed for the use in agricultural production is proven to be urgent and necessary for decision-making, and required investments are affordable. The total cost of the full upgrade of agrometeorological climate services to meet current needs (including monitoring, seamless forecasting system development and the development of tools for information dissemination) was found to be about three orders of magnitude lower than the assessed losses in agricultural production in the two extreme years over the past decade.

<p>Over the last two decades, Serbian agriculture has suffered increased losses and damages due to the more frequent occurrence of the extreme weather events caused by the climate change. The most significant losses are recorded in years with droughts and high summer temperature (such as 2012 and 2017). Significant losses in orchards are caused by the frost in late winter or early spring, when the flowering occurs early, due to a prolonged period of unusually high temperatures. On the other hand, damages caused by low winter temperatures are decreasing.</p><p>In order to assess the risk levels brought by the climate change and extreme weather events to the agricultural plant production in different regions of the country, analyzed are frequency of the occurrence of the weather events that may have significant negative effect to the yields of the most important crops (corn, maize, sunflower, soybeans) and fruits (plum, peach, raspberry, apple, wine grape), as well as pastures and meadows. Vulnerability is assessed through the analysis of agricultural production structure in the administrative districts of Serbia.</p><p>Weather events with potentially negative effect to yields and most vulnerable phenophases are defined for each crop or fruit considered in the analysis. For each plant and each potentially dangerous weather event one or more bioclimatic indices were adopted and calculated for the past, present and future. For the present (2000-2019), daily data on temperature and precipitation were used from the eOBS gridded observations dataset. Results of 8 regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative were combined into an ensemble. The ensemble was constructed upon the evaluation of their ability to simulate past climate characteristics over the country. The chosen simulations are done under the RCP8.5 IPCC greenhouse gasses emission scenario, for the periods 1986-2005, 2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2081-2100.</p><p>Results showed that projected frequencies of the events such are water deficit and/or droughts and high temperatures in the critical phenophases of the considered plants, and late spring frost, are increasing in the future. The median value of the frequency of those weather events projected for the next 20 years is mostly already reached. Therefore, more weight is given to the 75<sup>th</sup> percentile of the ensemble projections for the increasing risks and the 25<sup>th</sup> percentile for the decreasing risks, as upper and lower limits of the most probable range of the future climate changes.</p><p>This assessment is used for drafting the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan in order to propose and prioritize adaptation measures for the agricultural sector in the Republic of Serbia, on the national and administrative districts level.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgment: </strong>This research is supported by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia, through PROMIS project “Integrated Agro-Meteorological Prediction System” (IAPS), grant no 6062629 and United Nations Development Program and Green Climate Fund through the project “Advancing Medium and Long-term adaptation planning in the Republic of Serbia”.</p>

<p>Agriculture is exposed to numerous risks related to climate change. Extreme weather events, such as droughts, heat waves, intensive rainfall and floods, as well as slow changes (increased temperatures, changes in precipitation regime and generally increased climate variability) affect the year-to-year stability of quality and quantity of the plant production.</p><p>Serbia is located in one of the regions that are recognized as hot spots where climate change unfolds faster than the global average. A survey completed by more than 100 agricultural producers in Serbia showed that in the last 20 years they were affected by mostly negative impact of climate change and suffered reduced quality and/or quantity of yields, mostly from droughts, high summer temperatures, spring frosts and storms with strong winds and hail.</p><p>Adaptation measures applied to reduce the risks of extreme weather events are mainly those subsidized by the Government (anti-hail nets, irrigation systems, etc.), recommended by the Agriculture Advisory Service or other independent expert (tillage methods, sowing time, time and water amount used for irrigation, use of fertilizers, etc.), as well as those learn from their own past experience (selection of varieties, crop rotation).</p><p>Most respondents regularly follow short-term weather forecasts from various sources and plan field activities accordingly. They are mainly familiar with the monthly forecast issued by the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS), which is also published by several newspapers. This forecast is based on the statistical method of analogies and the producers believe that they cannot rely on it in long-term planning. In general, they lack confidence in the long-term weather forecasts, mainly due to the fact that over the past years Serbian media were overwhelmed with tendentious seasonal forecasts from unreliable sources.</p><p>On the other hand, the survey showed that many producers would appreciate and use the seasonal weather outlooks if it was tailored according to their specific needs considering species they cultivate and local climate characteristics. They would like clearly presented information, in simple graph or map form, followed by textual advices on agro-technical measures they could adopt in order to reduce foreseen weather-related risks.</p><p>Integrated Agro-meteorological Prediction System (IAPS) is a project financed by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia through the Program for excellent project of young researchers (PROMIS) that aims to reduce the risk of weather-related events and increase climate resilience of Serbian agriculture, as well as to advance the use of climate information by producers and agricultural advisers in long-term planning. The idea is to create a coupled system od dynamically downscaled seasonal weather forecasts and crop models, accompanied with a set of products specifically tailored to support long-term decision making in agriculture. At the end of the project, the developed system and its products will be offered to RHMSS to include in the operative forecast system.</p>