Economic experts’ predictions of a slowdown in the EU’s global economy and economic growth in the year 2020 were based on various risks and uncertainties existing on a world scale, ranging from the US-China trade war, traditionally strained relations of the EU and the US on the one hand and the Russian Federation on the other, all the way to BREXIT and economic migration to developed EU countries. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has further aggravated those forecasts, so that the entire EU is recording a historic decline in all macroeconomic aggregates. The beginning of the pandemic in the EU was accompanied by the complete border lockdown of the entire Union, which greatly affected the economies of the member states. The EU is experiencing a decline of both real and nominal GDP, declining incomes, employment decline and unemployment increase. This paper will investigate the impact of COVID-19 onto GDP, unemployment, and EU public debt. Correlation-regression analysis confirms the positive correlation between these variables and the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to the economic crisis, a crisis of EU health systems, which requires huge economic investments. A more prominent economic recovery is hard to expect until the global pandemic ends. One thing is for certain, this economic crisis will continue in 2021, whereby a more significant recovery is expected only in the year 2022. Certainly, it will take years to make up for the economic losses caused by the pandemic.
The increase in interest rate is related to the efforts of monetary authorities to neutralize inflationary pressures; while the rate reduction can be interpreted as an invitation to business sector to access more favorable lending conditions. The effectiveness of these changes largely depends on the development level of financial system, the role of the central bank as a creditor and current economic situation. In this research an econometric regression double-logarithmic model was applied, with the main goal of examining the relationship between discount rate and its influence on interest rates and money supply on the example of the National Bank of Serbia. The results show the correlation between the NBS discount rate and interest rates of commercial banks and the amount of money in circulation, indicating their influence on market stability.
Micro, small and medium enterprises play a major role in the country's economic growth and development. The connection and correlation of GDP and the number of small and medium-sized companies represents a key not only economic but also social role of EU countries. This paper seeks to explore small and medium enterprises as an important role in economic growth and development. Micro, small and medium enterprises play a very important role in the economic development of the country, which is the reason for many studies and analyzes. In addition to contributing to gross domestic product creation, they also play a key social role as they reduce unemployment. The aim of this paper is to assess the relationship between the components of gross domestic product (GDP) and the development of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the EU-28 in the years 2009-2019. To achieve this goal, we reviewed the literature, presented statistical data that confirm the importance of these companies in economic development, such as: indicator of entrepreneurship (calculated as the number of SME companies per 1000 inhabitants), participation of SMEs in creating added value. We have presented this data for selected EU countries. Material and methods of work will be performed statistical analysis of data collected for SMEs in the EU and thus enable verification of the hypothesis set in the paper. Secondary data downloaded from the Eurostat site will be used. Based on the downloaded data and the application of a simple regression model, a universal and original model will be presented. Before presenting the model, a correlation will be made in order to present the comprehensiveness of the model. The model will be presented in the form of a function, which will have the value of parameters on the basis of which the influence of independent variables on dependent ones will be determined. The results and conclusions are presented at the end of the paper. The results of the research confirm the theoretical significance and role of small and medium enterprises, as well as the need for their internalization and growth into global market leaders. If the unemployment rate increases by 1 unit (if one person loses his job) in the EU, it will cause a decrease in total domestic value (GDP) by 0.509 units. Every new unemployed worker will cost the EU so much unproduced output and new added value. Assuming that there is no unemployment in the EU, ie that the rate is equal to 0, the EU would produce a gross domestic value of 16,135 euros (note: only the impact and the relationship between the unemployment rate and GDP is taken into account here). Thus, it is clear how much costs and effects unemployment has on the gross domestic product and economic policy of EU countries.
More than 150 years after the Engel document "Die Productions und Consumptionsverhaltnisse des Königreichs Sachsen", economists and policy makers pay tireless attention to his work, especially its applicability and relevance in different economic contexts. Households with low living standards will spend more money to cover basic needs (food, clothing, housing, etc.). As incomes increase, spending is focused on buying goods for their comfort (health, transport, recreation and culture, tourism). The aim of this paper is to examine the value of Engel 's law in household consumption in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the periods from 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2015. Secondary data from the following database were used to interpret household dynamics: I MB, NIS, EUROSTAT and the BiH Agency for Statistics. We investigated the relationship between consumption and income through regression analysis and found that Engel's law is applied in the BiH economy, with specific developments and impacts. In developed economies, the transition to services and consumption is faster. In this paper, a nonlinear double logarithmic regression model will be used to test the validity of Engel's first law of the influence of income on the value spent on the purchase of food and soft drinks. The paper is organized into four parts as follows: after reviewing the literature, the data and methodology of the study are presented, the fourth part is focused on the research results, and the last part is dedicated to the conclusions.
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