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This paper describes, analyses and illuminates complex unnoticed aspects of the ’Sunshine’ project in Japan. The ‘Sunshine’ project was launched by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) as a large-scale and long-term project with the aim of developing ‘new energy’ technology. It continued from the 1970s through the early 1990s. Particular reference is made to the unexpectedly complex relationship between the ocean thermal energy conversion technology developed by the project and stratospheric ozone depletion. The paper shows that the unexpected and complex relationship between ‘new energy’ technology development and irreversible environmental change can be reduced to the problems of assessment and decision-making in situations of uncertainty. Based on this insight, a model for assessing large-scale, long-term technological development projects through a reflexive ‘feedback-for-learning’ channel is proposed. Finally, the paper introduces a sociological implication of the study: the principle of ‘mild freezing’, a perspective that builds upon and complements the precautionary principle.

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