In the last few years, significant changes in climate have had a disparate effect on biodiversity. The influences of these changes are random and unpredictable. The resurgence of insect pests, especially of medical and veterinary importance, often corresponds with climate changes. The Old World screwworm, Chrysomya bezziana, is one of the most important myiasis-causing flies that parasitize warm-blooded animals in the Eastern Hemisphere. We used a spatial distribution modeling approach to estimate the consequences of climatic changes on the potential geographic distribution of this insect throughout the world currently and in the future. A Maxent model used occurrence data from 104 localities and 19 climatic factors to predict the suitable habitat regions throughout the world. Two representative concentration pathways 2.6 and 8.5, were used to forecast the future distribution of C. bezziana in 2050 and 2070. The Maxent model for C. bezziana provided a satisfactory result, with a high value of the Area Under Curve equal to 0.855 (±0.001). Furthermore, the True Skilled Statistics value is equal to 0.67. These values indicate the significant influence on the model of the ecology of this fly species. Jackknife test indicated that temperature variables play a significant role in C. bezziana dynamics. The resultant models indicated the areas at risk of invasion by potential serious medical/ veterinary issues, especially in countries with a large livestock production. Throughout the long history of our planet, the climate has changed dramatically, but in the last few decades global warming has become more tangible even for the layman 1,2. Greenhouse gases emitted as a result of anthropogenic action are the main factors driving global warming 3. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted an increase of about a 1.8-4 °C in global temperature by the end of the 21 st century as a result of high CO 2 levels 4. This form a challenge for many ecosystems throughout the world, threatening ecological processes and impacting on biodiversity, including insects 5. Conversely, climate change is one of the most important factors associated with the resurgence of insect pests. Many medically important pests such as mosquitoes (Culicidae) will invade new regions because of changes in global temperature 6. Flies that cause myiasis will also be able to invade new regions and impact the livestock economy in different parts of the world. Myiasis is a type of parasitism in which the living tissues of a vertebrate host are infested by dipterous larvae 7. This phenomenon is widespread throughout the world, especially the tropical regions. It usually occurs in both domestic and wild animals and, under certain conditions, in humans 8,9. The Old World screwworm fly (OWSF) Chrysomya bezziana (Villeneuve) is an obligate parasite causing myiasis in animals and humans in the Eastern Hemisphere 7,9,10. Females deposit their eggs in wounds or near the natural body orifices of the targeted host. Then the maggots burrow and feed o...

Beekeeping is essential for the global food supply, yet honeybee health and hive numbers are increasingly threatened by habitat alteration, climate change, agrochemical overuse, pathogens, diseases, and insect pests. However, pests and diseases that have unknown spatial distribution and influences are blamed for diminishing honeybee colonies over the world. The greater wax moth (GWM), Galleria mellonella, is a pervasive pest of the honeybee, Apis mellifera. It has an international distribution that causes severe loss to the beekeeping industry. The GWM larvae burrow into the edge of unsealed cells that have pollen, bee brood, and honey through to the midrib of the wax comb. Burrowing larvae leave behind masses of webs that cause honey to leak out and entangle emerging bees, resulting in death by starvation, a phenomenon called galleriasis. In this study, the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in (Maxent) model was used to predict the global spatial distribution of GWM throughout the world. Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 of three global climate models (GCMs), were used to forecast the global distribution of GWM in 2050 and 2070. The Maxent models for GWM provided a high value of the Area Under Curve equal to 0.8 ± 0.001, which was a satisfactory result. Furthermore, True Skilled Statistics assured the perfection of the resultant models with a value equal to 0.7. These values indicated a significant correlation between the models and the ecology of the pest species. The models also showed a very high habitat suitability for the GWM in hot-spot honey exporting and importing countries. Furthermore, we extrapolated the economic impact of such pests in both feral and wild honeybee populations and consequently the global market of the honeybee industry.

Some beetle species can attack honeybee colonies, causing severe damage to beekeeping. These pests include Oplostomus fuligineus, which is also known as the Large Hive Beetle (LHB). This beetle is native to Sub-Saharan Africa and has recently also been recorded in some parts of North Africa. It feeds mainly on young bee larvae and stored food within the colonies, causing severe damage to weak colonies. The present work sheds light on the current and future distribution (from 2050 to 2070) of this beetle in Africa and South Europe using species distribution modeling. Maxent was used to model the invasion of LHB. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585 were used to model the future distribution of LHB. The Maxent models showed satisfactory results with a high Area Under Curve (AUC) value (0.85 ± 0.02). Furthermore, the True Skill Statistics (TSS) value was equal to 0.87. The current and future maps showed a high risk of invasion because of temperature variation in most of the parts of North Africa and South Europe. The maps also predicted the future invasion of LHB into other countries, mainly through southern Europe. These predictive risk maps will help quarantine authorities in highly relevant countries to prevent the expansion of this pest outside of its natural range.

No abstract

Temperatures have fluctuated dramatically throughout our planet’s long history, and in recent decades, global warming has become a more visible indicator of climate change. Climate change has several effects on different economic sectors, especially the livestock industry. The Old-world screwworm (OWS), Chrysomya bezziana (Villeneuve, 1914), is one of the most destructive insect pests which is invading new regions as a result of climate change. The economic loss in livestock business due to invasion of OWS was previously assessed by FAO in Iraq to be USD 8,555,000. Other areas at risk of invasion with OWS in the future include Japan. Therefore, maximum entropy implemented in MaxEnt was used to model predictive risk maps of OWS invasion to Japan based on two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070. The Area Under Curve (AUC) indicates high model performance, with a value equal to 0.89 (±0.001). In addition, the True Skill Statistics (TSS) value was equal to 0.7. The resulting models indicate the unsuitability of the northern territory of Japan for invasion by OWS. The main island’s southern costs show high and very high invasion suitability, respectively, and both Kyushu and Okinawa are at high risk of invasion with OWS. The predicted risk maps can be considered a warning sign for the Japanese quarantine authority to hasten a control program in order to protect the livestock industry from this devastating pest.