This study explores the war-growth nexus in Afghanistan, a country where war-torn acts inform resource allocation. Employing the asymmetric ARDL, dynamic multipliers, and asymmetric causality techniques, the initial results confirm the existence of a long-run asymmetric nexus amid predictors. The asymmetric ARDL results indicate that a positive asymmetric shock from the per capita cost of war reduces per capita GDP—that is, economic growth—while a negative asymmetric shock from the per capita cost of war increases growth in the short and long run. Moreover, the findings reveal that per capita capital investment, per capita energy consumption, per capita household consumption, per capita remittance, per capita foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation rate have significantly asymmetric effects on growth, highlighting non-monotonic impacts in scale and magnitude. The results of the asymmetric causality technique by bootstrap confirm that there is an asymmetric bidirectional causality between growth, per capita cost of war, per capita household consumption, per capita capital investment, and per capita foreign direct investment, while expanding only unidirectional causality with per capita remittance, population growth, and inflation rate. Based on the findings, the study concludes by offering relevant policy recommendations.

This study examines the effects of long-run civil wars on healthcare, which is an important component of human capital development and their causality nexus in Afghanistan using the MVAR (modified vector autoregressive) approach and the Granger non-causality model covering data period 2002Q3-2020Q4. The primary results support a significant long-run relationship between variables, while the results of the MVAR model indicate the per capita cost of war, per capita GDP, and age dependency ratio have significantly positive impacts on per capita health expenditures, whereas child mortality rate and crude death rate have negative impacts. The results of the Granger non-causality approach demonstrate that there is a statistically significant bidirectional causality nexus between per capita health expenditure, per capita cost of war, per capita GDP, child mortality rate, crude death rate, and age dependency ratio, while it also supports the existence of strong and significant interconnectivity and multidimensionality between per capita cost of war and per capita health expenditure, with a significantly strong feedback response from the control variables. Important policy implications sourced from the key findings are also discussed.

This article aims to uncover the asymmetric labor-market consequences of the long-run civil war in Afghanistan by employing a non-linear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model and an asymmetric causality technique over the period from 2004Q3 to 2020Q4. The findings from the NARDL model reveal that the positive asymmetric shocks from the cost of war, GDP growth, final government expenditure, foreign direct investment, and the rule of law significantly decrease the unemployment rate, while their negative asymmetric shocks increase the unemployment rate in the short and long runs. Innovatively, the composite financial inclusion index has been incorporated into the model, which provides interesting results. It demonstrates that enhancing the outreach of financial services plays an important role in reducing the unemployment rate during wartime in Afghanistan, while its exclusion is found to increase the unemployment rate both in the short and long runs. Moreover, the results of the asymmetric causality test reveal that an asymmetric causality runs from both the positive and negative components of the cost of war, the composite financial inclusion index, GDP growth, foreign direct investment, inflation rate, population growth, and the rule of law to the unemployment rate, while no evidence is found to support a causality nexus between the unemployment rate, final government expenditure, and the secondary school enrollment rate. The results entail several policy implications that are discussed.