The main objective of fault tree analysis method is to estimate the “Top Event occurrence probability”. This requires determination of failure time distribution functions also known as “Bathtub Curves” for each of the system elements/events. This paper introduces a novel method to determine the failure time distribution functions using possibility theory. For this purpose, fuzzy‐bathtub distributions using expert opinions are generated for basic events and fuzzy formulas are derived for static and dynamic gates fault tree constructions. This process completed by proposed fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation throughout the preferred operational time and uses the actual time‐to‐failure data. Accordingly, the Top Event failure curve and the reliability profile of the system are depicted based on the defuzzificated basic‐events' bathtub‐failure‐rates. The results show that the proposed method not only is feasible and powerful but can also be accurate more than the other probabilistic and possibilistic techniques because of the component failure rates follow the real failure distributions.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.