Research problem: Although the economy of Jordan witnessed dramatic volatilities and fundamental variables including market-to-book value ratio and interest rate are located at the middle of these variations; there is a lack in literature regarding the impacts of market fundamentals and dividends policies in investors’ perceptions, as captured by the performance of Amman stock exchange.
Research objectives: Thus, due to the power of these variables to impact investment decisions, this research aimed at scrutinizing the long and short-run causalities, which are running from market fundamentals, dividends policies, and the 2008/11 financial crisis towards investors’ perceptions.
Research methodology: To accomplish the core aim of this research, empirical techniques like Augmented Dickey Fuller, Johansen Co-integration, the single equation of the error correction model “ECM” and the Wald test are mainly utilized to analyze a time series data set covering the period Jan/1990–Dec/2017.
Results and future recommendations: Consequently, results from ECM confirmed that the study’s variables are not integrated over the long-run. Alternatively, findings from the Wald test approved that investors’ perceptions as captured by the market’s performance are statistically related to market fundamentals, dividends policies and the recent financial crisis. Therefore, the study concluded that ASE’s investors adopt the view of Gordon (1962) and Lintner (1962) during the short-run. However, the study recommends further researchers to follow the study’s models to investigate the other variables, which are impacting investors’ perceptions, as well as examining the impact of financial crises in the decisions of dividends’ policies.
The present paper is empirically scrutinized the long and short-run causalities, which are running from the bird-in-hand dividends policy towards investors' preferences as proxied by banks’ stability. Through analyzing a quarterly data set covering the period Q1/1996-Q4/2018; results from the ADF test proved that the series variables became stationary only after including the first difference. However, although the Johansen test showed long-run integrations among variables; findings from the single equation of the error correction model asserted that there are no long-run causalities running from dividends’ policy towards investors’ preferences as captured by the Z-Score index “ZSI”, bankometer model or market capitalization. By contrast, results from the Waldtest proved that except for earnings per share and retained ratio; the solvency of banks is found to be significantly responding to the change in dividends payout ratio. However, since there are short-run correlations among dividends’ stability, investors’ preferences and banking stability, the study concluded that the ZSI is significantly related to investors’ attitudes towards banks' decisions regarding dividends’ payments.
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