Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.
Aims Ambient air pollution is a major health risk, leading to respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. A recent Global Exposure Mortality Model, based on an unmatched number of cohort studies in many countries, provides new hazard ratio functions, calling for re-evaluation of the disease burden. Accordingly, we estimated excess cardiovascular mortality attributed to air pollution in Europe. Methods and results The new hazard ratio functions have been combined with ambient air pollution exposure data to estimate the impacts in Europe and the 28 countries of the European Union (EU-28). The annual excess mortality rate from ambient air pollution in Europe is 790 000 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 645 000–934 000], and 659 000 (95% CI 537 000–775 000) in the EU-28. Between 40% and 80% are due to cardiovascular events, which dominate health outcomes. The upper limit includes events attributed to other non-communicable diseases, which are currently not specified. These estimates exceed recent analyses, such as the Global Burden of Disease for 2015, by more than a factor of two. We estimate that air pollution reduces the mean life expectancy in Europe by about 2.2 years with an annual, attributable per capita mortality rate in Europe of 133/100 000 per year. Conclusion We provide new data based on novel hazard ratio functions suggesting that the health impacts attributable to ambient air pollution in Europe are substantially higher than previously assumed, though subject to considerable uncertainty. Our results imply that replacing fossil fuels by clean, renewable energy sources could substantially reduce the loss of life expectancy from air pollution.
Aims Long-term exposure of humans to air pollution enhances the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. A novel Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) has been derived from many cohort studies, providing much-improved coverage of the exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We applied the GEMM to assess excess mortality attributable to ambient air pollution on a global scale and compare to other risk factors. Methods and results We used a data-informed atmospheric model to calculate worldwide exposure to PM2.5 and ozone pollution, which was combined with the GEMM to estimate disease-specific excess mortality and loss of life expectancy (LLE) in 2015. Using this model, we investigated the effects of different pollution sources, distinguishing between natural (wildfires, aeolian dust) and anthropogenic emissions, including fossil fuel use. Global excess mortality from all ambient air pollution is estimated at 8.8 (7.11–10.41) million/year, with an LLE of 2.9 (2.3–3.5) years, being a factor of two higher than earlier estimates, and exceeding that of tobacco smoking. The global mean mortality rate of about 120 per 100 000 people/year is much exceeded in East Asia (196 per 100 000/year) and Europe (133 per 100 000/year). Without fossil fuel emissions, the global mean life expectancy would increase by 1.1 (0.9–1.2) years and 1.7 (1.4–2.0) years by removing all potentially controllable anthropogenic emissions. Because aeolian dust and wildfire emission control is impracticable, significant LLE is unavoidable. Conclusion Ambient air pollution is one of the main global health risks, causing significant excess mortality and LLE, especially through cardiovascular diseases. It causes an LLE that rivals that of tobacco smoking. The global mean LLE from air pollution strongly exceeds that by violence (all forms together), i.e. by an order of magnitude (LLE being 2.9 and 0.3 years, respectively).
Extreme precipitation in the arid Middle East can cause flash floods with dramatic societal impacts. This study investigates the synoptic-scale dynamics of three extreme precipitation events that occurred in Saudi Arabia in autumn, winter and spring. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis, soundings and observational precipitation data, we study precipitation characteristics, the synoptic circulations, moisture transport pathways and forcing mechanisms for upward motion. All three cases involved strong tropical-extratropical interactions whereby midlatitude forcing instigated an incursion of tropical moisture over the Arabian Peninsula that fuelled the heavy rainfall. In each case, a midlatitude upper-level trough, associated with anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking, intruded into the subtropics. The phase relationship between this trough and the tropical low-level circulation was consistent with wave amplification through baroclinic growth. Eulerian and Lagrangian analyses reveal moisture transport from nearby and remote tropical regions, leading to above-normal tropospheric moisture content over Saudi Arabia. The autumn case (November 2009) showed a transient midlatitude upper-level trough that interacted with the climatological Red Sea Trough near the surface, being an Active Red Sea Trough' event. The winter case (January 2005) resembled tropical plume-like characteristics and demonstrated the coupling of a midlatitude cyclone and the equatorial low-pressure zone over Africa, an intensified subtropical jet stream, and pronounced moisture fluxes at middle and upper levels. The spring case (April-May 2013) involved a quasi-stationary cut-off low and persistent advection of low-level moist air masses, partly from the south Indian Ocean through cross-equatorial flow. The forcing of ascent was associated with low-level moisture convergence and decreased static stability (autumn case), dynamical lifting (winter case), strong surface sensible heating (spring case), and orographic lifting (all cases), favouring the build-up and release of potential instability. We discuss the three cases from a seasonal perspective and present a synthesis of their common key synoptic features
According to observed twentieth century temperature trends and twenty-first century climate model projections, the region that encompasses the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is identified as a climate change hot spot. We extend previous studies by a comprehensive climatology of heat waves in the EMME based on regional climate model simulations for the recent past and the end of the twenty-first century. A percentile-based definition of heat waves is used to account for local climatic conditions. Spatial patterns of several heat wave properties are assessed and associated with atmospheric circulation regimes over specific locations. To cover a range of possible future climates, we use three SRES emission scenarios. According to our results, all indices that characterize heat wave severity will strongly increase compared with the control period of 1961–1990. The northern part of the EMME could be exposed to increased heat wave amplitudes by 6–10 °C, and the southern part may experience 2–3 months more combined hot days and tropical nights. Heat wave peak temperatures will be higher due to the overall mean warming as well as stronger summer anticyclonic conditions. The projected changes will affect human health and the environment in multiple ways and call for impact studies to support the development of adaptation strategies. Keyword
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