Drought is one of the most serious climatic and natural disasters inflicting serious impacts on the socio-economy of Morocco, which is characterized both by low-average annual rainfall and high irregularity in the spatial distribution and timing of precipitation across the country. This work aims to develop a comprehensive and integrated method for drought monitoring based on remote sensing techniques. The main input parameters are derived monthly from satellite data at the national scale and are then combined to generate a composite drought index presenting different severity classes of drought. The input parameters are: Standardized Precipitation Index calculated from satellite-based precipitation data since 1981 (CHIRPS), anomalies in the day-night difference of Land Surface Temperature as a proxy for soil moisture, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index anomalies from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and Evapotranspiration anomalies from surface energy balance modeling. All of these satellite-based indices are being used to monitor vegetation condition, rainfall and land surface temperature. The weighted combination of these input parameters into one composite indicator takes into account the importance of the rainfall-based parameter (SPI). The composite drought index maps were generated during the growing seasons going back to 2003. These maps have been compared to both the historical, in situ precipitation data across Morocco and with the historical yield data across different provinces with information being available since 2000. The maps are disseminated monthly to several main stakeholders' groups including the Ministry of Agriculture and Department of Water in Morocco.

Abstract:A new flammability index (FI) was developed, which integrated two parameters that are highly correlated to fuel moisture content (MC). These parameters are time-to-ignition and flame height. The newly obtained FI-values belong to the variation interval of {0; 20}. In addition to the six flammability classes defined in the earlier work, a seventh class (FI > 16.5) was proposed to include fuel species with a high content of volatile flammable-compounds. Flammability testing and MC measurement were performed at a range of MC obtained through a drying process of samples. As a result, FI was statistically highly correlated with MC for all 13 Moroccan forest fuels tested in this study. Following this, linear regression equations were established to predict the FI-value as a function of MC. Therefore, the classification of flammability would depend on the species as well as the MC-value of the samples and the season in which they were collected.

Leaf shrinkage provides insights into the potential variation of foliar SVR, within the same species, when leaf moisture content is changing in response to water deficit. Since SVR is among the most significant plant flammability features, leaf shrinkage would be a relevant component of fuel hazard assessment through its influence on SVR, enhancing—if it is taken into account—thereby the wildfire prediction accuracy. The purpose of this work is, first, to consider the leaf shrinkage by characterizing the plant species towards the shrinkability of their leaves, taking account the possible site effect, to characterize the behavior of shrinkage as a function of moisture content and finally to perform a classification for some dominant Mediterranean species based on the shrinkage levels. The assessment of the hierarchical relationships between the dimensional shrinkages is also aimed. Leaves and needles of thirteen tree and shrub species were harvested from six different sites in western Rif Mountains. Leaves dimensions and moisture content were measured regularly during a gradual drying at the laboratory. Dimensional shrinkages were calculated at each moisture content level. Dimensional shrinkages behaved similarly whether in leaf or timber and kept the same reporting relationships between each other. Among the species sampled in different sites, site effect is significant only in Pinus canariensis and Pistacia lentiscus. A classification of the plant species was carried out in three separate classes. Generally, shrinkage class of the plant species studied gave an idea on its flammability ranking reported in the literature, implying thus a cause-and-effect relationship between both parameters.

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In Morocco, efforts have been made to prevent wildfires, although with limited results because the pyric properties of forest fuels have not been adequately quantified. In order to remedy this gap, the bulk densities of litter and individual shrubs and biomass per size class were assessed in five fire-prone forest regions. The study covered a total of 35 sites, on both north and south-facing slopes in the Central Plateau, the Middle Atlas (Western and Eastern), the Western Rif and the Pre-Rif regions. Litter depths ranged from 1.1 (Ononis natrix L.) to 7.5 cm (Daphne laureola L.), and the bulk density of individual shrubs varied from 0.35 (D. laureola) to 4.64 mg/cm3 (Thymelaea tartonraira L.). The lowest fine fuel bulk density was found for D. laureola (0.22 kg/m3), and the highest for T. tartonraira (4.05 kg/m3). As for the bulk density of individual shrubs, no significant intra-species differences were found between the sampled regions, except for Arbutus unedo L., while the effect of the region on fine fuel biomass was not significant in all species. Linear functions were used to adjust the fine fuel biomass for the effect of individual shrub volume. Such adjustments will be very useful for forest managers, since they will make it possible to estimate the fine fuel biomass contained in a shrub using simple, independent measurements of the shrub size. Integrating data on the structural traits of fuels into fire behaviour prediction systems will facilitate estimations of fuel hazards in the regions studied and thus guide decision-makers in their task of protecting both humans and natural resources.