We forecasted potential impacts of climate change on the ability of a network of key sites for bird conservation (Important Bird Areas; IBAs) to provide suitable climate for 370 bird species of current conservation concern in two Asian biodiversity hotspots: the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong. Comparable studies have largely not accounted for uncertainty, which may lead to inappropriate conclusions. We quantified the contribution of four sources of variation (choice of general circulation models, emission scenarios and species distribution modelling methods and variation in species distribution data) to uncertainty in forecasts and tested if our projections were robust to these uncertainties. Declines in the availability of suitable climate within the IBA network by 2100 were forecast as 'extremely likely' for 45% of species, whereas increases were projected for only 2%. Thus, we predict almost 24 times as many 'losers' as 'winners'. However, for no species was suitable climate 'extremely likely' to be completely lost from the network. Considerable turnover (median = 43%, 95% CI = 35-69%) in species compositions of most IBAs were projected by 2100. Climatic conditions in 47% of IBAs were projected as 'extremely likely' to become suitable for fewer priority species. However, no IBA was forecast to become suitable for more species. Variation among General Circulation Models and Species Distribution Models contributed most to uncertainty among forecasts. This uncertainty precluded firm conclusions for 53% of species and IBAs because 95% confidence intervals included projections of no change. Considering this uncertainty, however, allows robust recommendations concerning the remaining species and IBAs. Overall, while the IBA network will continue to sustain bird conservation, climate change will modify which species each site will be suitable for. Thus, adaptive management of the network, including modified site conservation strategies and facilitating species' movement among sites, is critical to ensure effective future conservation.

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The northeast region of India is one of the world’s most significant biodiversity hotspots. One of the richest bird areas in India, it is an important route for migratory birds and home to many endemic bird species. This paper describes a literature-based dataset of species occurrences of birds of northeast India. The occurrence records documented in the dataset are distributed across eleven states of India, viz.: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. The geospatial scope of the dataset represents 24 to 29 degree North latitude and 78 to 94 degree East longitude, and it comprises over 2400 occurrence records. These records have been collated from scholarly literature published between1915 and 2008, especially from the Journal of the Bombay Natural History Society (JBNHS). The temporal scale of the dataset represents bird observations recorded between 1909 and 2007. The dataset has been developed by employing MS Excel. The key elements in the database are scientific name, taxonomic classification, temporal and geospatial details including geo-coordinate precision, data collector, basis of record and primary source of the data record. The temporal and geospatial quality of more than 50% of the data records has been enhanced retrospectively. Where possible, data records are annotated with geospatial coordinate precision to the nearest minute. This dataset is being constantly updated with the addition of new data records, and quality enhancement of documented occurrences. The dataset can be used in species distribution and niche modeling studies. It is planned to expand the scope of the dataset to collate bird species occurrences across the Indian peninsula.