Summary Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. Findings In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30–30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78–1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331–412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11–16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40–57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98–30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (−0·2% [−2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (−3·6% [−7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0–10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7–12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82–141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90–170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. Interpretation TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of indi...

Summary Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions acro...

SummaryBackgroundEfforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.MethodsWe measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.FindingsThe global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level...

Background. Malnutrition among children remains one of the most important causes of morbidity and mortality in the world. In Ethiopia, malnutrition is one of the most serious public health problem and the biggest in the world. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of malnutrition and associated factors among under-five children in pastoral communities of Afar Regional state, Northeast Ethiopia. Methods. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 840 children aged 6–59 months from March 01–25, 2017. A multistage cluster sampling method was used to select the study participants. A structured questionnaire was used and anthropometric measurements were taken to collect data. EPI Data 3.1 and SPSS version 20.0 were used for data entry and analysis, respectively. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify the factors associated with malnutrition. The statistical significance was declared at p value < 0.05 with 95% confidence intervals in the final model. Result. The study found the prevalence of wasting, stunting, and underweight was 16.2% (95% CI: 13.8–18.8%), 43.1% (95% CI: 39.8–46.5%), and 24.8% (95% CI: 21.9–27.8%), respectively. Family size (AOR = 2.72, 95% CI: 1.62–4.55), prelacteal feeding (AOR = 3.81, 95% CI: 1.79–5.42), and diarrhoea in the past two weeks (AOR = 4.57, 95% CI: 2.56–8.16) were associated with wasting. And sex of child (AOR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.46–2.72), age of child ((12–23 months: AOR = 3.44, 95% CI: 2.24–5.29); (24–35 months: AOR = 3.58, 95% CI: 2.25–5.69); and (36–59 months: AOR = 4.42, 95% CI: 2.79–6.94)), and immunization status of child (AOR = 3.34, 95% CI: 1.31–4.81) were predictors for stunting. Moreover, mother’s education (AOR = 4.06, 95% CI: 2.01–8.19), sex of child (AOR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.29–2.94), prelacteal feeding (AOR = 2.81, 95% CI: 1.64–3.72), and immunization status of child (AOR = 3.17, 95% CI: 2.14–4.99) were significantly associated with underweight. Conclusions. This study indicated that child malnutrition was high among under-five children. Family size of five and above, receiving prelacteal feeding, and diarrhoea in the past two weeks were positively associated with wasting. Male child, increasing age of child, and not fully immunized child were positive predictors for increasing stunting. Maternal illiteracy, male child, prelacteal feeding, and not fully immunized child were factors affecting underweight. Promoting use of family planning, preventing diarrhoeal diseases, and vaccinating children integrated with the access of nutrition education programs are vital interventions to improve nutritional status of the children.

Background: Stunting is defined as a child with a height for-age Z-score less than minus two standard deviations. Globally, 162 million less than 5 years were stunted. In Ethiopia, Nationally the prevalence of stunting among under five children was 38.4% and in Afar it is above the national average (41.1%). This study was aimed to identify determinants of stunting among children aged 6 to 59 months in rural Dubti district, Afar region, North East Ethiopia, 2017. Methods: Community based unmatched case-control study design was conducted among 322 (161 cases and 161 controls) children aged 6 to 59 months from March 2-30/ 2017. Simple random method was used to select 5 kebelles from 13 kebelles. Training was given for data collectors and supervisors. Data were entered to EPI data version 3.02 and exported to SPSS version 20 for analysis. Binary logistic regression analysis was used and variables with p-value < 0.25 on univariable binary logistic regression analysis were further analyzed on multivariable binary logistic regression analysis and statistical significance was declared at 95% CI. Results: Being from a mother with no education (AOR = 4.92, 95%CI (1.94, 12.4), preceding birth interval less than 24 months (AOR = 4.94, 95% (2.17, 11.2), no ANC follow-up (AOR = 2.81, 95% (1.1.46, 5.38), no access to latrine (AOR =3.26, 95% CI (1.54-6.94), children born from short mother < 150 cm (AOR = 3.75, 95%CI (1.54, 9.18), not fed colostrum (AOR = 4.45, 95% CI (1.68, 11.8), breast fed for less than 24 months (AOR = 3.14, 95% CI (1.7, 5.79) and non-exclusive breast feeding (AOR = 6.68, 95% (3.1, 14.52) were determinants of stunting at 95% CI. Conclusion: No maternal education, preceding birth interval less than 24 months, no ANC follow-up, no access to latrine, short maternal height, not feeding colostrum, duration of breast feed less than 24 months and nonexclusive breast feeding were determinants of stunting at 95% CI.