Invasive alien species continue to arrive in new locations with no abatement in rate, and thus greater predictive powers surrounding their ecological impacts are required. In particular, we need improved means of quantifying the ecological impacts of new invasive species under different contexts. Here, we develop a suite of metrics based upon the novel Relative Impact Potential (RIP) metric, combining the functional response (consumer per capita effect), with proxies for the numerical response (consumer population response), providing quantification of invasive species ecological impact. These metrics are comparative in relation to the eco-evolutionary baseline of trophically analogous natives, as well as other invasive species and across multiple populations. Crucially, the metrics also reveal how impacts of invasive species change under abiotic and biotic contexts. While studies focused solely on functional responses have been successful in predictive invasion ecology, RIP retains these advantages while adding vital other predictive elements, principally consumer abundance. RIP can also be combined with propagule pressure to quantify overall invasion risk. By highlighting functional response and numerical response proxies, we outline a user-friendly method for assessing the impacts of invaders of all trophic levels and taxonomic groups. We apply the metric to impact assessment in the face of climate change by taking account of both changing predator consumption rates and prey reproduction rates. We proceed to outline the application of RIP to assess biotic resistance against incoming invasive species, the effect of evolution on invasive species impacts, application to interspecific competition, changing spatio-temporal patterns of invasion, and how RIP can inform biological control. We propose that RIP provides scientists and practitioners with a user-friendly, customisable and, crucially, powerful technique to inform invasive species policy and management.

The ecological implications of biotic interactions, such as predator-prey relationships, are often context-dependent. Comparative functional responses analysis can be used under different abiotic contexts to improve understanding and prediction of the ecological impact of invasive species. Pterois volitans (Lionfish) [Linnaeus 1758] is an established invasive species in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, with a more recent invasion into the Mediterranean. Lionfish are generalist predators that impact a wide range of commercial and non-commercial species. Functional response analysis was employed to quantify interaction strength between lionfish and a generic prey species, the shrimp (Paleomonetes varians) [Leach 1814], under the contexts of differing temperature, habitat complexity and light wavelength. Lionfish have prey population destabilising Type II functional responses under all contexts examined. Significantly more prey were consumed at 26°C than at 22°C. Habitat complexity did not significantly alter the functional response parameters. Significantly more prey were consumed under white light and blue light than under red light. Attack rate was significantly higher under white light than under blue or red light. Light wavelength did not significantly change handling times. The impacts on prey populations through feeding rates may increase with concomitant temperature increase. As attack rates are very high at low habitat complexity this may elucidate the cause of high impact upon degraded reef ecosystems with lowdensity prey populations, although there was little protection conferred through habitat complexity. Only red light (i.e. dark) afforded any reduction in predation pressure. Management initiatives should account for these environmental factors when planning mitigation and prevention strategies.

Biological invasions threaten biodiversity on a global scale, therefore, developing predictive methods to understand variation in ecological change conferred is essential. Trophic interaction strength underpins community dynamics, however, these interactions can be profoundly affected by abiotic context, such as substrate type. The red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) has successfully invaded a number of freshwater ecosystems. We experimentally derive the Functional Response (FR) (density dependent predation) of the red swamp crayfish preying upon both a benthic prey; chironomid larvae, and a pelagic prey; Daphnia magna, on a no substrate control, sand, and gravel substrates to determine whether (1) there is a higher impact on prey that are benthic, and (2) whether the presence of different substrate types can dampen the interaction strength. We apply and demonstrate the utility of the Functional Response Ratio (FRR) metric in unravelling differences in ecological impact not obvious from traditional FR curves. Procambarus clarkii is capable of constantly utilising high numbers of both benthic and pelagic prey items, showing a Type II functional response under all scenarios. The presence of gravel and sand substrate each independently decreased the magnitude FR upon D. magna. Though, with regards to chironomid larvae the FR curves showed no difference in magnitude FR, the FRR reveals that the highest impact is conferred when foraging on sand substrate. This reinforces the need for impact assessments to be contextually relevant.

The influence of climate change on the ecological impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) remains understudied, with deoxygenation of aquatic environments often-overlooked as a consequence of climate change. Here, we therefore assessed how oxygen saturation affects the ecological impact of a predatory invasive fish, the Ponto-Caspian round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), relative to a co-occurring endangered European native analogue, the bullhead (Cottus gobio) experiencing decline in the presence of the IAS. In individual trials and mesocosms, we assessed the effect of high, medium and low (90%, 60% and 30%) oxygen saturation on: (1) functional responses (FRs) of the IAS and native, i.e. per capita feeding rates; (2) the impact on prey populations exerted; and (3) how combined impacts of both fishes change over invasion stages (Pre-invasion, Arrival, Replacement, Proliferation). Both species showed Type II potentially destabilising FRs, but at low oxygen saturation, the invader had a significantly higher feeding rate than the native. Relative Impact Potential, combining fish per capita effects and population abundances, revealed that low oxygen saturation exacerbates the high relative impact of the invader. The Relative Total Impact Potential (RTIP), modelling both consumer species’ impacts on prey populations in a system, was consistently higher at low oxygen saturation and especially high during invader Proliferation. In the mesocosm experiment, low oxygen lowered RTIP where both species were present, but again the IAS retained high relative impact during Replacement and Proliferation stages at low oxygen. We also found evidence of multiple predator effects, principally antagonism. We highlight the threat posed to native communities by IAS alongside climate-related stressors, but note that solutions may be available to remedy hypoxia and potentially mitigate impacts across invasion stages.

Biodiversity is declining on a global scale and the spread of invasive alien species (IAS) is a major driver, particularly through predatory impacts. Thus, effective means of assessing and predicting the consequences of IAS predation on native prey population stability remains a vital goal for conservation. Here, we applied two classic ecological concepts, consumer functional response (FR) and prey switching, to predict and understand the ecological impacts of juveniles of the lionfish (Pterois volitans), a notorious and widespread marine invader. Functional responses and prey switching propensities were quantified towards three representative prey species: Artemia salina, Palaemonetes varians, and Gammarus oceanicus. Lionfish exhibited potentially destabilising Type II FRs towards individual prey species, owing to high consumption rates at low prey densities, whilst FR magnitudes differed among prey species. Functional response attack rates (a) were highest, and handling times (h) lowest, towards A. salina, followed by P. varians and then G. oceanicus. Maximum feeding rates (1/h) and functional response ratios (FRR; a/h) also followed this impact gradient for the three prey species. Lionfish, however, displayed a potentially population stabilising prey switching propensity (i.e. frequency-dependent predation) when multiple prey species were presented simultaneously, where disproportionately less of rare prey, and more of abundant prey, were consumed. Whilst FR and FRR magnitudes indicate marked per capita lionfish predatory impacts towards prey species, a strong prey switching propensity may reduce in-field impacts by offering low density prey refuge in biodiverse communities. Our results thus corroborate field patterns documenting variable impacts of lionfish, with prey extirpations less likely in diverse communities owing to frequency-dependent predation.