Objective: to estimate the prevalence of falls, identify the associated factors and establish a prediction model for their development in patients treated by a home care program. Methods: a cross-sectional study conducted between June 2017 and January 2018, with 131 patients treated by Melhor em Casa Program, in a city in the north of Minas Gerais. We collected socio-demographic and clinical data through an instrument. Descriptive analysis was performed and the adjusted prevalence ratios were obtained by multiple Poisson regression analysis with robust variance. Results: 72 (55%) of the 131 patients were female, the average age was 66.8 years old and 43.5% had a fall. The independent variables that had a significant and joint impact on the fall outcome were: type of fall -accidental; fall location -bedroom; fall location -dining-room; fall location -kitchen; fall location -yard; fall location -street; and fear of further falls. Conclusion: falls are a common finding with home care patients and care for their prevention should be established.