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General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.-Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research -You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain -You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright, please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. AbstractThis paper studies cyclical patterns in risk indicators based on TARGET2 transaction data. These indicators provide information on network properties, operational aspects and links to ancillary systems. We compare the performance of two different ARIMA dummy models to the TBATS state space model. The results show that the forecasts of the ARIMA dummy models perform better than the TBATS model. We also find that there is no clear difference between the performances of the two ARIMA dummy models. The model with the fewest explanatory variables is therefore preferred.Keywords: ARIMA, TBATS, Time Series, TARGET2, Cyclical Patterns. JEL classifications: E42, E50, E58, E59.* Timmermans, Heijmans and Daniels can be reached at m.t.h.timmermans@dnb.nl, ronald.heijmans@dnb.nl and H.A.M.Daniels@uvt.nl, respectively. Heijmans is a member of one of the user groups with access to TARGET2 data in accordance with Article 1(2) of Decision ECB